The two gubernatorial elections in 2025 are both leaning toward Democrats roughly six months before Election Day, according to one election predictor.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics has rated both Virginia and New Jersey‘s gubernatorial races as “leans Democratic.” The incumbents in the two states, Govs. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) and Phil Murphy (D-NJ), are term limited and cannot seek an additional term.
In Virginia, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger will face off in the general election, after no other candidates qualified for the Republican or Democratic primaries.
The commonwealth voted for Republicans in its three statewide offices in 2021 but has voted for Democratic candidates for president every year since 2008. In 2024, former Vice President Kamala Harris defeated President Donald Trump in the state, 51.8%-46.1%, which was a significant improvement for the GOP from 2020 when former President Joe Biden beat Trump, 54.1%-44%.
In New Jersey, both parties will select their candidates for the gubernatorial race in the June 10 primaries. On the Democratic side, Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) and Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) are among a slate of candidates seeking to succeed Murphy. On the Republican side, Jon Bramnick, Jack Ciattarelli, and Bill Spadea are the major candidates in the field to flip the seat.
While New Jersey has been dominated by Democrats for the past two decades, sans former GOP Gov. Chris Christie’s two terms from 2010 until 2018, Republicans are optimistic after strong showings in 2021 and the 2024 presidential election.
THE NEXT SWING STATE? REPUBLICANS BELIEVE IT COULD BE NEW JERSEY
In the 2021 gubernatorial election, Murphy narrowly defeated Ciattarelli to win a second term, 51.2%-48% after being heavily favored. In the 2024 presidential election, Harris beat Trump, 52%-46.1%, which was a smaller margin than in 2020, when Biden beat Trump, 57.3%-41.4%.
The Cook Political Report has rated the Virginia gubernatorial race as a “toss-up,” while it has rated the New Jersey gubernatorial race as “lean Democrat.”
