TRUMP’S NEXT MOVE: TARIFFS, CYBER ATTACK, BOMBS?: “What President Trump will do next, only he knows,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News yesterday. “He has always expressed that diplomacy is the first option, always has been, always will be. However, he is unafraid to use the lethal force and might of the United States military if and when he deems that necessary.”
Trump is expected to huddle with top advisers today — including Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio — to review a “suite of options” ranging from diplomacy to military strikes against regime targets. Trump told reporters on Air Force One Sunday night that he was “looking at some very strong options.”
CBS News reports that the military options include conventional targets such as Iran’s missile sites, which were already severely damaged in the Israel strikes last year, but defense officials also told CBS that cyber and psychological operations could also be employed, either by themselves or in conjunction with kinetic strikes.
“I think that this is a really difficult decision to make, because it is hard to conduct military strikes in a way that is going to deal with this very dispersed IRGC and Basij forces throughout the country, said Beth Sanner, former deputy director of national intelligence, who is now an analyst on CNN. “So, he’s going to have to figure out if he wants to do a military strike, does he strike a headquarters of IRGC, a Basij headquarters?”
Sanner argued that with the death toll of Iranian protesters now over 600, with some estimates from human rights groups as high as 1,500, diplomacy would only legitimize the Iranian regime. “I think this whole idea of negotiations, I hope it’s not serious. I hope he’s actually just playing for time, in terms of moving our forces in, and figuring out covert and potentially military options.”
TRUMP IMPOSES 25% TARIFF ON ANY COUNTRY DOING BUSINESS WITH IRAN
GUNNED DOWN IN THE STREETS: For 17 days now, the government of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, under the cloak of an internet blackout, has been brutally cracking down on the growing protests, but slowly, through cell phones and landlines details of the slaughter in the streets has been leaking out.
“I saw it with my own eyes. They fired directly into lines of protesters, and people fell where they stood,” one protester told the BBC, describing how he witnessed Iranian security forces opening fire at unarmed protesters with Kalashnikov-style assault rifles.
Iranians who were able to get mobile phone service for the first time in more than two weeks, described “a heavy security presence in central Tehran,” according to the Associated Press. “Anti-riot police officers, wearing helmets and body armor, carried batons, shields, shotguns, and tear gas launchers. They stood watch at major intersections. Nearby, the witnesses saw members of the Revolutionary Guard’s all-volunteer Basij force, who similarly carried firearms and batons.”
Meanwhile, Iranian state television showed what appeared to be thousands of pro-government demonstrators in the streets of Tehran shouting “Death to America!” and “Death to Israel!”
IRAN ‘PREPARED FOR WAR’ BUT HOPING FOR NEGOTIATIONS WITH US
Former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s deposed shah, who portrays himself as something of an opposition leader in exile, has been making the rounds of U.S. media, encouraging protesters and arguing this is the moment President Trump could “Make Iran Great Again.”
“There’s a reason, Sean, that people are naming some streets after the president’s name. They know he’s not Barack Obama,” Pahlavi told Fox News host Sean Hannity last night. “They know that he’s not going to be a president that will throw them under the bus, as they have been before.”
“The level of massacre has been unbelievable, unfortunately. The regime is, with no pity, using military machinery, AK-47s, to shoot to death protesters. Morgues are overfilled. Despite all of that, these brave kids are still on the street,” Pahlavi told Hannity. “A doctor reported to us that she had a young patient that came in with her face being shot, bullet-ridden. And she said to the doctor: “Patch me up. I want to go back to the streets. I’m going to keep fighting until we are safe. And I want our leader, Reza Pahlavi, to return home to save us all.”
Pahlavi claims that he has sources telling him that several thousand “elements” of the regime’s military and paramilitary forces are refusing to show up for work, so they don’t have to be faced with the duty to crack down on people. “Unnecessary lives being lost. And we can prevent that from happening by dealing this regime the decisive blow,” Pahlavi said. “I believe President Trump knows exactly what he’s facing, not buying into the regime’s last-gasp effort to promise negotiation, because, every time they have their back to the wall, they come back with that line.”
“The regime is on the brink of collapse. Let’s push it over the cliff and be done with them.”
IRAN’S CROWN PRINCE CALLS FOR RENEWED NATIONWIDE PROTESTS DESPITE KILLINGS: ‘THIS IS A WAR’
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre.
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KELLY GOES ON OFFENSE: Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), the object of President Trump’s ire and facing an effort by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to dock his military pension for alleged seditious remarks, has filed suit in D.C. federal court, arguing his First Amendment rights are being violated.
“Pete Hegseth wants our longest-serving military veterans to live with the constant threat that they could be deprived of their rank and pay years or even decades after they leave the military just because he or another Secretary of Defense doesn’t like what they’ve said. That’s not the way things work in the United States of America, and I won’t stand for it,” Kelly said in a statement and remarks on the Senate floor. “His unconstitutional crusade against me sends a chilling message to every retired member of the military.”
It’s unclear whether the federal court will take up the case, or whether Kelly will have to exhaust his appeals in the military system first. Among his defenders in Congress is Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), a retired one-star Air Force general, who has said that while he thinks the video Kelly and fellow Democratic lawmakers made, reminding servicemembers that they can refuse illegal orders, was silly, simply stating that the law is not a prosecutable offense.
Military law experts have also said the charges against Kelly are baseless. “This is dead on arrival as a grade determination,” Eugene Fidell, a military law expert at Yale Law School, told the Washington Post last week. “None of this will stand up,” Fidel predicted, noting that a grade determination review is limited to the actions that occurred while someone was on active duty.
MARK KELLY SUES HEGSETH AND PENTAGON OVER POSSIBLE RETIREMENT GRADE REDUCTION
HEGSETH’S WAR ON FATTIES: Military members who have long complained that height and weight standards have unfairly penalized troops with big muscles are getting a new metric to determine if they are healthy enough to be in the U.S. armed forces.
A memo dated Dec.18, but just officially released by the Pentagon yesterday, uses a new waist-to-height ratio measurement to estimate if military personnel have too much body fat. The new formula takes the waist circumference and divides it by height. “The upper limit for allowable WHtR [waist-to-height ratio] for Military Service body composition policies shall be less than 0.55,” the memo says.
So, for a man who is 6 feet 2 inches tall, their waist size must be 40 inches or less. The new rules apply even for so-called “high performers,” who may exceed the body fat standards of between 18% and 26% for men and between 26% and 36% for women, but are extremely strong and otherwise fit.
“High performers on fitness tests may be granted allowances, but only within defined limits as prescribed by each Military Service,” the memo states. “High performance does not excuse non-compliance with body composition standards.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: UN report finds 2025 deadliest year on record since 2022 for Ukrainian civilians
Washington Examiner: Mark Kelly sues Hegseth and Pentagon over possible retirement grade reduction
Washington Examiner: Kelly points to ‘pattern’ of persecution amid Powell investigation and Hegseth suit
Washington Examiner: Cuban president says ‘no conversations’ have happened with Trump
Washington Examiner: DOJ charges suspected Tren de Aragua member for allegedly ramming Border Patrol vehicle
Washington Examiner: Judge orders restart of Rhode Island offshore wind project in blow to Trump crackdown
Washington Examiner: Delcy Rodriguez rips Trump post calling himself Venezuela’s ‘acting president’
Washington Examiner: Treasury Secretary Bessent hosts Australia, India, and G7 to talk critical minerals
Washington Examiner: Iran ‘prepared for war’ but hoping for negotiations with US
Washington Examiner: Iran’s crown prince calls for renewed nationwide protests despite killings: ‘This is a war’
Washington Examiner: Trump imposes 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran
Washington Examiner: Florida Republican pushes to make Greenland 51st state in bill seeking ‘sovereignty’ over territory
Washington Examiner: Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s fight may collide with US interests
Washington Examiner: Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s fight may collide with US interests
Washington Examiner: Trump turns from tariffs to threats of military action in foreign policy pivot
Washington Examiner: Tom Rogan Opinion: UK faces $38 billion test of its defense budget seriousness
New York Times: Trump Explores Diplomacy with Iran While Weighing Strikes, Officials Say
CBS: Trump briefed on military, cyber, psychological options for Iran, sources say
BBC: ‘They just kept killing’: Eyewitnesses describe deadly crackdown in Iran
AP: People inside Iran describe heavy security and scattered damage in first calls to outside world
Wall Street Journal: Iran Is Hunting Down Starlink Users to Stop Protest Videos From Going Global
AP: US lawmakers to visit Denmark as Trump continues to threaten Greenland
Politico: Bipartisan group of lawmakers introduces bill to prevent military action against NATO members
AP: How NATO works at a time when Trump is threatening to seize Greenland
Washington Post: U.S. plane used in boat strike was made to look like civilian aircraft
Kyiv Independent: ‘The situation now is the worst’ — Kyiv’s energy crisis deepens after Russia pounds power grid
Washington Post: Ukraine’s ex-commander in chief, envoy to Britain and maybe next president
Defense News: NATO’s Europe Commander Sees Growing Russian, Chinese Threat in Arctic
Air & Space Forces Magazine: At F-35 Factory, Hegseth Makes Acquisition Reform Case and Says Lockheed Will ‘Step Up’
Military Times: Pentagon Clarifies Hegseth’s ‘Putting Hands on Recruits’ Statement
Task & Purpose: Pentagon Announces New Way Military Will Measure Troops’ Body Fat
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Clamps Down on Airmen Walking with Phones
The Hill: Lawmakers race to prevent partial government shutdown
Air & Space Forces Magazine: F-15Es, A-10s Launched Wave of Strikes on ISIS in Syria
Air & Space Forces Magazine: SpaceX Sweeps Another Round of Space Force’s More Commercial-Like Launch Orders
Breaking Defense: Sweden Allocates $1.6B to Build Territorial Air Defense Capability, $140M for Space
Breaking Defense: With the Boom for Solid Rocket Motors for Missiles, a Perilous Crunch in the Supply Chain
AP: Pentagon is embracing Musk’s Grok AI chatbot as it draws global outcry
Forbes: A $1.5 Trillion Defense Budget: Implications for the Air Force and Space Force
AP: Former Navy sailor sentenced to 16 years for selling information about ships to Chinese intelligence
THE CALENDAR:
TUESDAY | JANUARY 13
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Donroe Doctrine: What Venezuela Means for China, Russia, and Iran,” with Ryan Berg, director, CSIS Americas Program; Henrietta Levin, CSIS chair in China studies; Vali Nasr, nonresident senior adviser at the CSIS Middle East Program; Maria Snegovaya, senior fellow, CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; and Will Todman, senior fellow, CSIS Middle East Program https://www.csis.org/events/donroe-doctrine
10 a.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection Subcommittee hearing: “Defense through Offense: Examining U.S. Cyber Capabilities to Deter and Disrupt Malign Foreign Activity Targeting the Homeland” http://homeland.house.gov
10 a.m. 2167 Rayburn — House Transportation and Infrastructure Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Subcommittee hearing: “Drugs, Thugs, and Fish: Examining Coast Guard Law Enforcement Effort.” http://transportation.house.gov
10:15 a.m. 2123 Rayburn — House Energy and Commerce Energy Subcommittee hearing: “Protecting America Energy Infrastructure in Today Cyber and Physical Threat Landscape” http://energycommerce.house.gov
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Recalibrating U.S.-ROK Alliance: Strategic Priorities for 2026,” with Chansong Lee, research fellow, Sejong Institute Center for Diplomatic Strategy; Bee Yun Jo, research fellow, Sejong Institute Center for Diplomatic Strategy; and Victor Cha, CSIS Korea chair https://www.csis.org/events/impossible-state-live-podcast
2:30 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution in-person or virtual discussion: “Assessing U.S. immigration policy in the second Trump administration,” with Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fl); David Bier, director of immigration studies and chair in immigration policy at CATO; Kristie De Pena, senior vice president for policy and director of immigration policy at the Niskanen Center; Eduardo Porter, economics and business journalist and contributing columnist at The Guardian; Wendy Edelberg, senior fellow in the Brookings Economic Studies Program; Marcela Escobari, senior fellow, Brookings Global Economy and Development Program; and Tara Watson, director, Brookings Center for Economic Security and Opportunity and senior fellow in the Brookings Economic Studies Program https://www.brookings.edu/events/assessing-us-immigration-policy
4 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research book discussion: The State and the Soldier: A History of Civil-Military Relations in the United States, with author Kori Shake, AEI director of foreign and defense policy studies; and Robert Doar, AEI president https://www.aei.org/events/the-state-and-the-soldier-a-conversation
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 14
8:45 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Indo-Pacific Forecast 2026,” with Adam Farrar, CSIS senior associate non-resident Korea chair and former special adviser to Vice President Harris for issues related to the Indo-Pacific, space, and intelligence; Victor Cha, CSIS Korea chair; Charles Edel, CSIS Australia chair; Kristi Govella, CSIS Japan chair; Gregory Poling, director and senior fellow, CSIS Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative; Nicholas Szechenyi, vice president, CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and senior fellow with the CSIS Japan Chair; Navin Girishankar, president, CSIS Economic Security and Technology Department; Philip Luck, director, CSIS Economics Program and chair in international business; Ilaria Mazzocco, deputy director and senior fellow with the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics; Will Todman, chief of staff of the CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and senior fellow, CSIS Middle East Program; Thomas Christensen, chair, CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and professor of international relations and director, China and the World Program at Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs; Henrietta Levin, CSIS chair in China studies; Bonny Lin, director, CSIS China Power Project and senior adviser; Maria Snegovaya, senior fellow, CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; and Kathryn Paik, deputy director and senior fellow, CSIS Australia Chair https://www.csis.org/events/indo-pacific-forecast-2026
2 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “Is Trump Foreign Policy Out of Control?” with Emma Ashford, Stimson Center senior fellow; Rebecca Lissner, Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow; and Aaron David Miller, CEIP senior fellow https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2025/12/trumps-foreign-policy
2:30 p.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Judiciary Border Security and Immigration Subcommittee and Crime and Counterterrorism Subcommittee joint hearing: “Biden Afghan Parolee Program – A Trojan Horse with Flawed Vetting and Deadly Consequences.” http://judiciary.senate.gov
6:30 p.m. 1307 L St. NW n— New York University, Washington, D.C. film screening and discussion of “Kabul Chaos: Escaping the Taliban,” with Nick Spicer, NPR International Desk Europe editor https://www.zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/democracy-on-screen
9 p.m. Simi Valley, Calif. — Reagan Foundation discussion: “The United States new national security strategy, the importance of defense spending and a strong defense industrial base, and how investing in modern capabilities supports U.S. manufacturing and American jobs,” with U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO Matthew Whitaker; U.S. Ambassador to Poland Thomas Rose; U.S. Ambassador to Czech Republic Nicholas Merrick; and U.S. Ambassador to the Netherlands Joseph Popolo https://www.youtube.com/watch
THURSDAY | JANUARY 15
8 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Va. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Northern Virginia Chapter Army IT Day 2026, with the theme “Dominating Technology to Increase Warfighter Lethality,” with Army Undersecretary Mike Obadal; Army CIO Leo Garciga; and Maj. Gen. Christopher Schneider, deputy for acquisition and systems management in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army https://afceanova.swoogo.com/armyitday2026/begin
11 a.m. — Arab Center Washington, D.C. virtual discussion: “U.S. Raid in Venezuela: Implications for the Middle East and U.S. Foreign Policy,” with Phyllis Bennis, program director, Institute for Policy StudiesNew Internationalism Project; Matthew Duss, executive vice president, Center for International Policy; and Khalil Jahshan, executive director, Arab Center Washington, D.C. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
FRIDAY | JANUARY 16
3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies Defense and Security Department U.S. Naval Institute Maritime Security Dialogue in-person and virtual event: “The Status of the Force,” with Vice Adm. Brendan McLane, commander, Naval Surface Forces, U.S. Pacific Fleet; retired Rear Adm. Raymond Spicer, chief executive officer and publisher, U.S. Naval Institute; and Jerry McGinn, director of CSIS Center for the Industrial Base https://www.csis.org/events/status-force-vadm-brendan-mclane
