CNN’s chief data analyst, Harry Enten, delivered a dose of cold reality to Democrats who had assumed the party was on track to reclaim control of the House in the 2026 midterm elections. According to Kalshi, a closely watched prediction market, Democrats’ chances of retaking the majority have plummeted over the past six months — from 83% in April to 63% in October.
What had appeared as a “likely Democratic win in the House come next year has become much closer to a toss-up at this point, although still slightly leaning Democratic.”
Enten noted that this sentiment is most apparent in generic congressional ballot polls. On the eve of the 2018 midterm elections, the RealClearPolitics average showed Democrats with a 7.3-point lead, and they ultimately won by 8.4 points. Today, Democrats still hold a 1.9-point edge — a margin analysts consider favorable to Republicans due to the Democrats’ structural disadvantage. Because Democrats tend to pile up huge margins in urban districts, many of their votes don’t translate into additional seats, effectively becoming “wasted.” As a result, Republicans can win more House races even with a smaller share of the national popular vote.
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But, if President Donald Trump truly represents the second coming of Hitler, as many Democrats claim, why are Republican candidates polling stronger today than they did during his first administration?
Well, it might be because Democrats more closely resemble Nazi Party propaganda master Joseph Goebbels than Trump does “der Führer” and that voters are finally catching on.
After Trump’s once-ridiculed negotiations to free the Gaza hostages unexpectedly bore fruit on Monday, the smarter Democrats summoned enough grace to acknowledge the achievement. The rest, those for whom hatred of Trump has hardened into a kind of moral religion, may have preferred that the hostages remain in Hamas captivity rather than credit Trump for their freedom.
The Democrats’ rhetoric about all things Trump has become wildly dishonest. What began as partisan exaggeration has turned into a reflexive contempt that now borders on slander. Every gesture, utterance, or policy is cast as apocalyptic, every success dismissed as sinister. The habit of moral hyperbole has become so ingrained that many on the left no longer argue against Trump — they simply denounce him as though invoking a curse.
The following reader response to a recent article I wrote on blue-state officials’ efforts to impede Trump’s enforcement of U.S. immigration law illustrates the point perfectly. It reads:
“Why is it so difficult for people to see that the Trump regime is trying to destroy democracy? They are acting so similar to what happened in Germany nearly one hundred years ago it is frightening. How much more clearly can you say ‘I am a fascist’ than by declaring anti-fascists the enemy?”
The reader claims, without evidence, that Trump is attempting to “destroy democracy,” drawing a sweeping parallel to Germany in the 1930s but offering no specifics. His administration hasn’t shuttered any newspapers, confiscated private property, or dispatched its political opponents to concentration camps. Nothing even remotely resembling Kristallnacht has occurred.
What Trump has done is try to enforce existing immigration laws and address the surge in crime that has accompanied lenient prosecution policies and the spread of no-cash-bail initiatives championed by liberal officials.
This comment is absurd on its face. But because it’s been repeated so often and for so long, it’s now accepted as the truth by the majority of Democrats.
However, as the accomplishments of this president continue to pile up, the contrast between rhetoric and reality has become impossible to ignore. The Democrats’ narrative, built on hysteria, moral theater, and a decade of self-righteous outrage, has begun to collapse under its own weight. What was once sold as a defense of democracy now looks suspiciously like its parody.
The irony is rich: criminals and illegal immigrants are endlessly defended in the name of “due process,” yet the same courtesy is denied to the president of the United States. Trump’s every utterance is treated as evidence of guilt, his every success as proof of conspiracy. The presumption of innocence, that most basic tenet of liberal democracy, is now reserved only for those who despise him.
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For years, the Left has insisted that Trump represents the death of democracy and the rise of fascism. But this myth is crumbling. Voters who were once swayed by that feverish story are waking up to the gap between what they were told and what they can see with their own eyes. The Republic still stands, elections still happen, and the press still shouts its opposition from every front page. The apocalypse, it seems, has been postponed.
All the while, the same chorus that cries “fascism” at every policy disagreement continues to insist that two plus two equals five — and demands that the rest of us applaud its arithmetic.
