School absence crisis now “entrenched”, new data reveals

Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) analysis of today’s latest school absence data from the Department for Education has uncovered that:

• Severe absence has hit new record levels for an Autumn term, with 147,605 severely absent pupils in Autumn 2024 – up 3.6 per cent on the previous Autumn term.
• Persistent absence has fallen (by 8.8 per cent on the previous Autumn term), but progress is slow with still 1,284,005 children persistently absent in Autumn 2024 – almost 40 per cent higher than Autumn 2019.
• Children on FSM are nearly four times more likely to be severely absent than their peers, while those with an Education, Health and Care (EHC) plan are seven times more likely
• The think tank found that rising school absence is contributing to the nation’s economic woes by putting thousands of pupils on a path to worklessness and welfare dependency.

CSJ analysis suggests that, without urgent action, almost 180,000 pupils will leave school to become NEETs (not in education, employment or training) due to persistent absence over the course of this Parliament. This is almost twice as many as if absence had returned to its pre-pandemic level, leaving an estimated lifetime cost to the taxpayer of £14 billion.

Severe absence is typically at lower levels during the Autumn term. While severe absence in Autumn 2024 was lower than the record high of 172,938 seen in Summer 2023, the trend remains on an alarmingly upwards trajectory (see Figure 1).

Beth Prescott, Education Lead at the CSJ, said:

“Five years on from school closures, classroom absences can no longer be viewed as a post-pandemic blip. The material risk now is that this issue is becoming deeply entrenched.

“This is not just an educational problem. It is sending a bow wave of harm through our economy, driving more young people towards a life of wasted potential and benefit dependency.

“Ministers must now build on the progress they have made and work with local charities and families to provide more absent pupils with the mentorship they need to return to school. But with the crisis deepening we need to attack the root causes of school absence, including softening parental attitudes to attendance and an education system that fails to engage thousands of young people.”