I don’t agree with James Carville on much politically. And judging from his recent track record, his skill for electoral prognostication leaves much to be desired. But when it comes to the current political environment, a few words of his from more than three decades ago still ring true: “[It’s] the economy, stupid.”
On both messaging and message, Republicans face the possibility of playing into the same trap that turned Carville’s pick of Kamala Harris last November into a fabulous flop. Donald Trump won reelection over Harris in large part because voters remembered the positive economy — and specifically the robust income growth — during his first term, as opposed to the “Bidenflation” of the past four years. If Republicans show the same complacency as Democrats did on the economy last year, they could become the next ones to take the electoral hit.
Inconsistent Messaging
Carville’s economy-first mantra dawned on me as the press and the administration seemingly spent half of August focused on President Trump’s summit with Vladimir Putin and associated diplomacy over the Ukraine conflict. Put aside for a minute the split among conservatives as to whether the U.S. should do more to support the Ukrainian government or walk away and focus its energies elsewhere.
The more important political question: What does spending all this time and energy focused on a war between Ukraine and Russia say to struggling American families? Does a household that can’t afford its rising grocery or rent bill really care about the status of the Donbas, or whether Donald Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize? The question should answer itself.
When it comes to the economic effects of Congress’ “big, beautiful bill,” some of the messaging difficulties come from this cluttered political landscape:
[Republicans] are trying to get voters to focus on the yet-to-be-fully-seen wins of the megabill while voters are distracted by other, more tangible issues: the fight over the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a move by at least two states to redraw their congressional maps mid-decade.
While political leaders often have to react to unexpected events, like the recent Minneapolis school shooting, they can also choose when and where to engage. Unfortunately, the economy does not always appear to rank high on Republicans’ priority list.
Politicians’ Attention Focused Elsewhere
The quote above comes from a Politico story highlighting speeches by Vice President J.D. Vance to sell the law in Georgia and Pennsylvania. But the unasked question seems obvious: Why is messaging on Republicans’ signature piece of legislation getting delegated to the No. 2 in command? Why isn’t the president taking his megaphone from the Oval Office and out into the country himself?
Steve Bannon recently observed this phenomenon, commenting on a lack of effort by congressional Republicans to sell the “big, beautiful bill” over the August recess. A few days after Bannon’s remarks, Trump himself acknowledged a messaging problem, saying he would no longer use the “big, beautiful” term for the budget reconciliation legislation signed into law on July 4. But no word as of yet from the White House about a presidential travel campaign to sell the legislation.
Inflation Battle Not Over
Carville’s mantra from the 1992 presidential campaign provides both instruction and warning. Take, for instance, the description of a president “who came into office vowing to focus on the economy like a laser beam [and] has now expanded his focus to encompass an agenda of new programs and revolutionary change that is breathtaking in its ambition.”
That quote could describe much of the Trump agenda to date. But it actually comes from a 1993 story about Bill Clinton’s first three months in office. And those who remember Clinton’s first two years — when debates over troops in Somalia, gays in the military, Hillarycare, and countless other topics dominated his administration — remember too how badly voters punished Democrats in the 1994 elections for taking their eyes off of “the economy, stupid.”
Three decades later, the economy must still remain the focus, particularly with inflation by no means licked. A recent Wall Street Journal article highlighting executives’ comments from their second-quarter earnings reports noted that some “price increases are already in place. More are on the way.” The ongoing price increases help explain why consumer confidence took a hit during August, and why “more U.S. consumers now say they’re dialing down spending than when inflation spiked in 2022” — a bad omen heading into the midterms next year.
However much conservatives may want the Trump administration to enact policies on any number of issues, from restraining spending to reining in the “deep state,” none of those will matter if the administration does not get the economy right. The entire administration must spend every day convincing the American people that they are doing everything in their power to help families get ahead, for they ignore “the economy, stupid,” at their peril.
