As the country barrels toward the 2026 midterm elections, the political landscape feels more unsettled than it has in decades. In swing states and strongholds alike, party loyalty is being tested, alliances are shifting, and voters are signaling deep dissatisfaction with the status quo.
With major ideological divides fracturing Democrats and Republicans and public trust in institutions continuing to erode, the stage is set for a high-stakes fight that could reshape the balance of power in Congress and set the tone for an unpredictable 2028 presidential race.
On the left, a surging socialist movement is challenging establishment Democrats on issues such as climate, housing, and wealth inequality. On the right, the shifting Make America Great Again umbrella, which has adopted the likes of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, continues to steer the Republican Party in unexpected ways.
New forces are gathering amid this polarization, from billionaire-backed political startups and former elected officials running as independents to long-standing third parties testing bold new strategies for relevance.
Third parties and Musk’s America Party
After President Donald Trump and former de facto Department of Government Efficiency head Elon Musk’s “big, beautiful breakup” over the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the billionaire went on his social media platform, X, and asked his followers if there should be a new third party — the “America Party.”
Following the passage of the reconciliation bill on July Fourth, Musk announced that the America Party would move forward. While it has not been confirmed by the Federal Election Committee, Musk has continued to promote the party on X.
However, Libertarian Party Chairman Steven Nekhaila said it takes more than just promotion and registering with the FEC for a third party to last.
When discussing the existing hurdles third parties such as the Libertarian or Green Parties face, Nehhaila said that the biggest hurdle is ballot access.
“I think between ballot access and the struggles, the lawsuits, the petitions, and the infrastructure it takes to actually stay on the ballot as a minor party,” Nekhaila told the Washington Examiner, “the momentum in funding is the biggest challenge.”
The Libertarian Party, as well as other existing third parties, are hoping that dissatisfaction in government institutions, along with people becoming more open to radical ideologies, will help win them a seat in office in 2026 or 2028, according to Nekhaila.
Nekhaila said that people become “more open to libertarian ideology because they’ve given up on mainstream politics and are looking for something different.”
However, in the 2024 election, the Libertarian Party only showed up on 37 states’ ballots despite being recognized over 50 years ago.
“It takes multiple election cycles and thousands and thousands of people to set the groundwork to make that happen, which is why traditionally, the Republican and Democratic parties have been the main stay-ins,” Nekhaila said. “Besides the Libertarians and the Greens as the closest competitors, it’s not easy for a billionaire to come in and swoop that up.”
Musk’s goal is to try to run 10 to 12 House or Senate candidates to “capture enough seats to beat the spread in Congress to essentially hold it hostage,” according to Nekhaila. In Musk’s case, he doesn’t need to appear on all 50 states’ ballots. He just needs to target 10 or so states where no incumbent is running.
Currently, 468 seats are open in the 2026 midterm elections. If Musk’s America Party does follow through, it could give power to the Democrats in the election.
Three times as many Republicans would consider joining the America Party, compared to Democrats, according to recent Quinnipiac polling. However, Aidan Chao, a political strategist based in California, thinks that Musk will not pose a threat in 2026 or 2028.
“Elon Musk is hyperfixated,” Chao told the Washington Examiner. “If you look at Elon Musk’s behavioral pattern, you can see that everything he does is hyperfixation-based, including getting into politics. The guy started with a couple maxed-out checks, a couple thousand dollars each, and then decided to spend $175 million. So, it’s all hyperfixation.”
Chao recalled Musk’s initial survey on his platform X, asking followers if they would like a new third party. Only 1 million people voted, and not all were United States citizens.
“I don’t think it’s going to pick up more steam than RFK’s presidential race did,” Chao said. “That was the last major talent of this major independent movement. Elon Musk is no Ross Perot.”
While Chao doesn’t see a third party shifting the political party status quo in 2026 or 2028, the two front-running political parties are changing rapidly, and voters may change their viewpoints on them.
Democratic Party divisions
Chao, who has worked on congressional and local California campaigns, foresees shifts in the Democratic Party, especially after Zorhan Mamdani became the Democratic front-runner for the New York City mayoral race.
Mamdani, whom many criticize for being “too socialist,” has received endorsements from progressive Democrats such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT).
“[The Democratic Party] moved to a far left socialist agenda. They’re about to elect as their new party leader, a socialist Marxist mayor of New York City, and half of the Democrats all want to meet him and take selfies with him,” Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) said. “Yet they’re not sure if they’re going to endorse him or not. But the bottom line is, that’s where their party has moved, in Washington, in New York, but that’s not where America is.”
According to Chao, the Democratic Party is being split into two. One side is the “organized” and “dangerous” Democratic Socialists of America, which includes Mamdani and other progressives, while the other side is “spineless, which claims they’re moderate” and is “toeing the party line, which has moved farther and farther to the left.”
Chao says the Democratic Party has been losing its footing. While rumors swirl about California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) running for president in 2028, Chao doesn’t see him significantly shifting the party left.
“[Newsom] only cares about what a certain amount of voters in certain swing states think about, and that’s all he’s been doing for the last year to appeal to people outside of his home state, which he hasn’t served that well,” Chao said. “He’s part of the group of people that don’t have beliefs and will sway with the wind wherever it goes, but I think what he’ll definitely do is try to paint himself as a centrist to appeal to moderate voters.”
While Newsom can try to paint himself as a more moderate candidate, Chao believes it won’t help him because people will base his campaign on how California is right now.
“People are just going to say, ‘You have the highest gas prices. You have the worst-managed cities. You have the highest crime. You have the least livable conditions in terms of quality of life. Why would we vote for you in Pennsylvania? Wisconsin?’” Chao said.
A CNN poll conducted July 10–13 found that only 28% of Americans view the Democratic Party favorably, a 30-year low.
With a wave of new, younger Democrats stepping into the spotlight, long-standing party leaders such as Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) find themselves at a crossroads. While both leaders congratulated Mamdani on his recent primary victory, neither went so far as to endorse him.
Schumer and Jeffries, along with other established lawmakers, are caught between holding on to their centrist positions or aligning with the party’s growing progressive wing, which is gaining significant momentum among younger voters.
“Chuck Schumer, your leadership is failing to meet the moment,” a March letter from several progressive youth organizations read. “Gen Z voters want leaders with a backbone—leaders who will stand up to billionaires and fight for working people. But it’s not just us. You’ve lost the trust of millions of voters and many of your colleagues in Congress.”
According to Chao, the Democrats need to devise an agreed-upon plan instead of fighting against each other if they want to win in 2026.
“The Democratic Party right now is at historical levels of distrust and dissatisfaction,” Chao said. “I can see the DSA becoming a major political force that will not surpass the Democrats, but will eat them from within, and I think that’s going to be their problem.”
Republican Party divisions
While the Democratic Party’s internal divide has drawn national attention, the Republican Party is also facing its own rift between the pro-Trump MAGA movement and traditional GOP voters.
Nekhaila recalled Trump’s campaign promises and noted that he hasn’t fully fulfilled some of them.
“I think that MAGA movement is very upset at the Republican Party for essentially leaning on all these promises they didn’t codify, they didn’t do anything they campaigned on,” Nekhaila said.
The Republican Party is the most Libertarian when it comes to the campaign season, but according to Nekhaila, they “essentially govern like socialists.”
One example is Sen. Josh Hawley’s (R-MO) late July bill that would give Americans a one-time $600 refundable income tax credit to offset tariffs. Trump endorsed the proposal, stating, “We’re thinking about a little rebate.”
Though rebates aren’t inherently socialist, they are often used in socialist systems to ensure broad affordability. Critics argue that proposals like these resemble wealth redistribution, contradicting the GOP’s free-market message.
Nekhaila believes the Republican Party could face significant losses in the 2026 midterm elections, though he doesn’t see Democrats faring much better, calling them “extremely disorganized.”
According to a July 23 Marquette Law School poll, Donald Trump’s approval rating is at 45%, which is fairly stagnant compared to the same poll conducted in May.
Meanwhile, the renewed attention to the Jeffrey Epstein files is causing turbulence within the Republican base. Trump, who once campaigned heavily on exposing Epstein’s connections, has seen a dip in support as his administration’s handling of the case appears inconsistent.
Some key Trump allies have also shared conflicting views. FBI Director Kash Patel and Deputy Director Dan Bongino — once vocal advocates for releasing Epstein’s “client list” — reversed course after the Department of Justice said no such list exists. The retraction has angered parts of Trump’s base, who’ve accused the administration of abandoning transparency.
Prominent MAGA lawmakers such as Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and Nancy Mace (R-SC) have expressed their anger with the administration’s handling of the files, potentially causing shifts for future elections.
Greene alluded to the administration’s handling of the files in a July X post, writing, “If you tell the base of people, who support you, of deep state treasonous crimes, election interference, blackmail, and rich powerful elite evil cabals, then you must take down every enemy of The People.”
Mace also voted in the House Oversight Committee in July to require the Justice Department to release the files, even though she’s touted the Trump administration numerous times.
Still, Chao noted that headline-grabbing promises may not be enough to win elections. He emphasized the importance of appealing to “politically homeless” voters — a strategy Republicans have successfully employed in recent cycles but may struggle with after the passage of the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act.
While the bill remains popular among much of the Republican base, its provisions, such as cuts to healthcare and education, have raised concerns among Democrats and centrist voters.
However, Republican lawmakers have a plan to sell the bill to constituents.
“It’s a huge piece of legislation, of course,” Rep. Brandon Gill (R-TX) said to the Washington Examiner, “But you have tax cuts, which the vast majority of Americans agree with. Republicans stopped one of the biggest, if not the biggest, tax hikes for working-class families in American history. All we have to do is just tell the truth about the bill, and I think you’re going to see more and more support.”
Strategies for 2026 and beyond
“Politics is a game of addition,” Chao said. “If parties want to compete in the future, I think they need to recognize that it’s a game of addition in terms of not only turning out their base, but also appealing to those voters who do feel politically homeless.”
Chao said that the best way to adapt to the average person is not to contribute to polarization by opposing everything the other party does, but to figure out ways to pull in the group of voters.
“I find success in the industry by doing things in a very traditional way,” Chao said. “No matter how advanced the technology is, the most effective way to get in touch with the voter is face-to-face conversations and making sure they feel like they’re heard. I think that’s what’s going to be T to our electoral success.”
While adapting to targeted digital space through artificial intelligence or other new technologies is important, Chao believes the best way to draw in different people with all different stories is by making them feel represented.
Chao plans to keep the focus on the main issues, such as the economy, crime, and immigration, and to be compassionate to the voter and be “seen as actually addressing the problem.”
The main way for the party to win is to strip away radical views and make sure voters are heard and represented the way they deserve to be, according to Chao.
“In 2028, I think a lot of it is going to be determined by whether or not we can effectively love the political temperature, so to say, by 2026, are we still going to be crazy or are we going to be compromising and cooperative with each other?” Chao said. “I think it’s going to be a major challenge for both parties going in, but I’m trying to do my part.”
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Success in 2026 and the trajectory toward 2028 will depend on which party can connect more with “politically homeless” voters. Parties that can energize their base while appealing to a broader spectrum of Americans will be best positioned to navigate the turbulent political waters ahead.
The coming years promise a high-stakes battle that could redefine party dynamics and set the stage for a new era in American politics.
