“If we desire to avoid insult, we must be able to repel it; if we desire to secure peace, one of the most powerful instruments of our rising prosperity, it must be known that we are at all times ready for war.” —George Washington (1793)
There are a lot of moving parts this week in the Israel/Iran war.
Most notably, on Monday, Donald Trump announced a “mostly peaceful” ceasefire he negotiated with Israel to end the 12-Day War, with Qatar’s emir brokering the deal with Iran. “It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran,” Trump posted, “that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! … On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, ‘THE 12 DAY WAR.’ This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t and never will!”
“12 Day War” is a historical shout-out to Israel’s 1967 Six Day War, in which the Jewish state swiftly defeated an Arab state coalition led by Egypt, Jordan, and Syria.
Of course, over those six hours, as Trump fumed, “Israel, as soon as we made the deal, they came out and they dropped a boatload of bombs, the likes of which I’ve never seen before. The biggest load that we’ve seen, I’m not happy with Israel. You know, when I say, ‘Okay, now you have 12 hours,’ you don’t go out in the first hour and just drop everything you have on them.”
Trump added, “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f*** they’re doing.”
However, the post-ceasefire shots fired are typical of Middle Eastern conflict de-escalation, much as were Iran’s symbolic missile shots fired at a U.S. airbase in Qatar a day before the ceasefire. Symbolic, because Iran fired 14 missiles, corresponding with the number of bombs we dropped on their nuke fabrication facilities, but gave notice they were coming to ensure there would be no American casualties. Trump actually thanked Iran for the advance notice.
I know … it’s just the way those crazy mullahs roll!
Of course, a factor in the calculations by Iranian Supreme Dictator Ali Hosseini Khamenei is that while nobody in Iran knows where he is, the U.S. and Israel know exactly where he is. Furthermore, we just demonstrated to Khamenei that you can run to a deep, hardened bunker, but you can’t hide. And that is good news for the 90 million Iranians, many of whom, like most people, want a safe and prosperous future. Unfortunately, they live in a nation that has gone backwards for 46 years under an Islamist regime that 80% do not support. Additionally, despite public pronouncements to the contrary, there is abundant support by Arabs for the U.S. actions.
Let’s review the timeline for how we got here.
On 13 June, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion. In “Israel Protects the World from the Islamic Bomb,” I outlined the Israelis’ extraordinary intelligence and surgical strike capabilities when targeting Iran’s offensive military and nuclear development sites, and how they simultaneously decapitated Iran’s military and nuclear development capabilities by eliminating key military and nuclear scientists.
Iran retaliated by targeting, as always, civilians in Israel.
Eleven days after hostilities commenced, Trump authorized Operation Midnight Hammer to provide weapons that Israel did not have, to further incapacitate Iran’s imminent construction of nuclear weapons by destroying its enriched uranium and enrichment facilities.
Despite the way these operations have been portrayed by the mainstream media platforms as being spontaneous developments, a narrowing outline of these collaborative actions was likely scripted 60-90 days ago, based on table-top exercises that were accelerated after Hamas (read: Iran) attacked Israel on 7 October 2023.
The use of American B-2s to finish the job Israel started was not, as the MSM would have you believe, something Trump first considered after Israel launched Rising Lion.
A day prior to the Midnight Hammer attack, International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi — in stark contrast to his previous assessments — declared, “Iran does have enough material for several weapons.” He then covered his butt by insisting: “We do not have … at this time, any tangible proof that there is a program, or a plan, to fabricate, to manufacture a nuclear weapon. If there was some activity which was clandestine or hidden or away from our inspectors, we couldn’t know.”
Gosh, the Iranians wouldn’t create a clandestine nuclear weapon development program, would they?
In fact, as implied by the IAEA report, it is likely that Iran had sufficiently enriched enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon core, and has the trigger mechanisms and delivery capabilities.
Oh, and regarding the leaked classified Defense Intelligence Report ostensibly questioning the extent of damage to Iran’s capacity to rebuild its weapons program, that assessment has been clearly disputed by IAEA.
Here is the takeaway: This assessment, regardless of how it is being churned for ad revenue by the Leftmedia, is typical of such assessments. At this point, until there are confirmations on the ground, all we know for certain is that there are some clear GBU-57 MOP entry points above those underground sites. The assessment process is a multidimensional chess game, and the MSM only knows how to play checkers.
Responding to the assessment, Trump said correctly that Iran does not want to “enrich anything.”
About those “gee wiz” claims that Iran moved enriched uranium from the underground sites ahead of the attack, as I noted in my analysis on Op Midnight Hammer about the Navy’s simultaneous launch of 30 Tomahawk missiles at other targets: “Presumably those other targets were selected on the basis of intelligence from HaMossad and the IDF on the ground, and our bird views, detecting what Iran did or did not move out of its underground facilities ahead of the attack.”
For a deeper dive on how we got here, the fact is that both military operations are the result of former Democrat presidents and European Union leftists who have relied on Israel to do their dirty work for decades, while maintaining plausible deniability. But the clock ran out on their cowardice years ago, and according to some intelligence sources, Iran had the ability to construct an operational nuclear weapon in 7-10 days.
Remember when…
Bill Clinton declared in 1995: “Iran’s appetite for acquiring and developing nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them has only grown larger. It would be wrong to do nothing as Iran continues its pursuit of nuclear weapons.”
George W. Bush declared in 2006: “For the sake of peace, the world must not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”
Barack Obama declared in 2015: “I have stated that Iran will never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon.”
Joe Biden declared in 2022: “We will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon.”
Kamala Harris declared in 2024: “Make no mistake, as president, I will never hesitate to take whatever action is necessary to defend American forces and interests from Iran and Iran-backed terrorists, and I will never allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon.”
Trump, of course, has also said on multiple occasions over many years that Iran “cannot have a nuclear weapon.” Last weekend, unlike all his predecessors, he made good on that assertion, declaring, “Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.”
As for all those Demo protests about Trump having no authority, let’s review…
Bill Clinton bombed Afghanistan and Sudan; Barack Obama bombed Libya, Syria, Iraq, Somalia, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Pakistan; and Joe Biden bombed Iraq and Syria.
As for Article I, Section 8 constitutional authority, Thomas Jefferson did not have full authority to wage war against the Barbary Pirates, and that was a time when everything moved at a very slow pace. Jefferson was merely exercising his Article II power as commander-in-chief.
For the record, there have been just five official declarations of war by the United States against 11 nations: The War of 1812 (United Kingdom), the Mexican-American War (Mexico), the Spanish-American War (Spain), World War I (Germany and Austria-Hungary), and World War II (Japan, Germany, Italy, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania). But since the American Revolution, there have been more than 125 military campaigns in defense of the United States and our critical national security interests.
Unfortunately for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), who is leading the impeachment chorus, as George Washington University Law School professor Jonathan Turley observed: “You have to feel for AOC. You’re all dressed up for an impeachment, and peace breaks out.”
Trump taunted AOC: “Go ahead and try Impeaching me, again, MAKE MY DAY!” And that was before 128 Democrats joined House Republicans yesterday to block AOC’s impeach-Trump charade.
When it comes to defending the United States and our critical national security interests and allies worldwide, Trump says what he means and means what he says.
Recall in the November 2015 Republican presidential debate when Trump was asked what he was going to do about the Islamic State, he replied, “I’m going to bomb the s**t out of them.” And as soon as he reached the White House, Jihadi terrorists worldwide found the deepest hole they could hide in and did not dare stick their heads up.
Also, recall that in 2016, Trump declared under his administration it was going to be “America First”: “It’s time to shake the rust off America’s foreign policy. My foreign policy always puts the interest of the American people and American security above all else. Has to be first. Has to be. That will be the foundation of every single decision that I will make. ‘America first’ will be the major and overriding theme of my administration.”
This was abhorrent to the globalist Demos then and now, and a foreign policy tidal shift for our NATO partners and foreign adversaries, who had grown accustomed to being appeased by Obama and company.
Trump imposed a “New Deal” on Middle East terrorists, authorizing our military to squash the Islamic State, unlike Obama, who allowed jihadi terror to flourish.
Trump’s new foreign policy included targeting the most significant state sponsor of terrorism, Iran, beginning with the revocation of the perilous Obama/Clinton/Kerry “nuke deal” with Iran.
And if Iran’s mullahs had any questions about Trump’s intent to put “the interest of the American people and American security above all else,” that was put to rest on 3 January 2020, when he ordered the strike that killed Qasem Soleimani, leader of Iran’s elite terrorist Corps-Quds forces, and Soleimani’s Iraqi counterpart, paramilitary commander Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes.
Moreover, in his second term, Trump has proven to be much more politically savvy with both domestic and foreign policy, and only a fool underestimates him this time around. But the world is full of fools.
Regarding Trump’s NATO summit this week, his handling of the 12-day Israel/Iran war broadcast a very clear message to the rest of the world (read: China and Russia) that he means what he says.
Recall that at the end of his first term, Trump had prompted our NATO allies to increase defense spending by $130 billion, which was a good start. I would expect to see a substantial boost in NATO spending after this summit.
All said, the Iranian retaliation threat on U.S. soil is still a risk.
Over the last three months, the U.S. has gamed up every Iranian counterstrike capability in order to protect Americans at home and abroad, and our critical national security interests. But, as I noted the day after Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, “Remember that an unknown number of Islamist terrorists crossed Biden’s open southern border over the last four years, and eventually, a retaliatory attack on American soil is possible.”
In fact, we know that more than 700 Iranian nationals who entered the country during the Biden years were ordered released into the U.S.. This week, ICE has arrested 11 Iranian nationals, some with known ties to Hezbollah and the Iranian military. They are the proverbial tip of the iceberg.
To that end, the FBI is on high alert, and large urban centers are ramping up security at religious and cultural sites.
Finally, two Leftmedia BIG Lies were debunked this week.
First was CNN’s repeated assertions that Democrat leaders were not informed ahead of Operation Midnight Hammer. That was a lie. Administration spokesperson Karoline Leavitt rebutted: “This is Fake News. The White House made bipartisan courtesy calls to Congressional Leadership…” forcing CNN to issue a partial correction: “This story has been updated to make clear Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer was called before the strike, not after as initially reported.” Fact is, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries could not be reached, raising questions about where he was at this critical time.
Second was the lie that there was a big “split” among MAGA voters regarding the Iran strikes. Turns out 90% of Trump voters supported the attack, and I suspect by now that number is closer to 100%.
PS: If you have not watched JD Vance in action lately, I recommend you watch his interview with Bret Baier to see just how presidential the VP is.
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