After Dems faceplanted by believing that they could rely on Latinos as a base even the economy was sideways, Republicans did the same thing with much less evidence and on much weaker grounds.
Unlike the black vote, the Latino vote is not really a single entity and can be broken down into immigrant generations, country of origin, and religious affiliation, but the basic bottom line is that they adhere more closely to Dems, likely reflecting greater Democrat investment in Latino voter outreach, Latino candidates and community social welfare, but are an economic swing vote. They’re not full time Democrats, but they’re certainly not Republicans, and more closely resemble Independents whose big issue isn’t immigration, but the economy and general quality of life.
Republican consultants who decided that they could could on Latinos in special elections, midterm elections and local elections were committing political malpractice. Trump proved Latinos (at least some Latinos) are winnable, they are certainly not a Republican base. Run during an economic crisis as a non-incumbent on a platform of economic populism and you can win over some Latino voters, but don’t expect this to be an annual thing.
The Latino shift in 2025 had little to do with ICE and, like that of other voters, had a great deal to do with economic dissatisfaction by swing and independent voters. Republicans would be stupid to assume that they can just win with Latinos, but Dems would be equally stupid to assume that they can always count on Latino voters to show up for them.
