Israel’s assassination of most of the paramilitary Basij’s leadership signals a new phase in the war, in which the political repression apparatus in Iran is becoming the primary target.
On the night of Monday into Tuesday, Israel launched its largest and most effective wave of assassinations since the opening hours of the war with Iran, killing Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani, along with Basij chief Gholamreza Soleimani and over a dozen Basij commanders. A report from Iran International claimed that over 300 Basij agents were also killed, a major blow to one of the primary enforcers of Tehran’s authoritarian rule.
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The assassinations were an escalation of a pattern that first gained significant traction last week, when Israeli Hermes drones began launching targeted strikes against Basij checkpoints in the capital. After the neutering of Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, air defenses, and navy, Israel’s objective seems to be shifting from the degradation of Tehran’s ability to project power outside its borders to the degradation of Tehran’s ability to assert control within its borders.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said as much in a statement after the assassinations, saying the strikes were an intentional strategy to dismantle the regime and give the Iranian populace a path to rise in protest.
“We eliminated Ali Larijani, who is the boss of the IRGC or the gangsters’ mob. We are dismantling the regime in the hope of giving the people a chance to remove it. It won’t happen all at once; it won’t happen easily. But if we persist, we will allow them to take their fate into their own hands,” he said.
The targeting of Larijani feeds into this strategy by decapitating Iran’s government once again and by taking out one of its most effective figures at the convergence of Iran’s military, security establishment, and political leadership. He was widely speculated to have been the mastermind behind the January crackdown that saw tens of thousands of Iranian protesters killed.
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The focus on degrading the Basij is a particularly notable element of the strikes, killing regime enforcers who wouldn’t take part in combating Israeli and American forces, but would be central in putting down dissent. By targeting them, Israel is deliberately weakening Iran’s hold on the country, clearing the way for a possible uprising.
In addition to strikes on checkpoints, reports have begun to emerge that Israeli drones are targeting individual Basij vehicles with precision strikes.
According to the Iran International report, the strikes were aimed at the systematic dismantling of Basij forces, beyond just killing commanders and personnel. Basij logistics, repair, and maintenance centers were hit, along with command-and-control centers. A site housing hundreds of Basij motorcycles and vehicles, critical for its ability to suppress protests, was struck.
Other units involved in repression, such as the Mohammad Rasoulollah Corps, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps unit responsible for Tehran and its surroundings, had their facilities targeted. The Imam Ali security battalions suffered heavy personnel and equipment losses in the wave of strikes, according to the report.
The targeted strikes, particularly by Israeli drones over Tehran, have altered the ability of the Basij to exert control over the capital. Videos show that its checkpoints are now largely hidden under overpasses and within tunnels.
Israel, the United States, and the Iranian opposition have repeatedly warned Iranians to stay inside as the bombing continues. Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has repeatedly told Iranians since the early hours of the operation that he will signal to his supporters to launch a general uprising.
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Israel’s clearing of the way for an uprising and possible regime change could clash with the U.S.’s goals in the operation. Trump has remained vague about his exact objectives, but has voiced a preference for a Venezuela-like scenario, in which the U.S. strikes a deal with cooperative elements of the government. However, his previous demand for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” could entail regime change.
Nevertheless, the precise targeting of Basij personnel and infrastructure seems to have been the doing primarily of Israel.
