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Israeli military analysts have been calculating the numbers of ballistic missiles Iran had in the past, has in the present, and likely will have in the future. They have estimates as follows: first, before the Twelve-Day War last June; second, just after that war ended; third, on February 28 of this year, when both Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion began; fourth, the number of missiles it is believed to have now; fifth, the number of ballistic missiles it could have by next year, given its current rate of producing those missiles.
The conclusion is stark: that absent continuous, wide-ranging attacks by both the United States and Israel on Iran’s missile production centers and on its arsenal of such weapons, by the end of 2027, Iran could have 8000 ballistic missiles, capable of hitting everywhere in the Middle East, with its long-range version also capable of hitting Europe and even America.
More on this disturbing forecast can be found here.
An Israeli military spokesperson said on Thursday Iran could build up an arsenal of up to 8000 ballistic missiles by 2027 if it continued rebuilding its missile program following the June 2025 war.
Speaking in an online press conference for Persian-language media outlets abroad, the spokesperson said Israel observed that Tehran had resumed rebuilding its missile production systems after the June 2025 conflict and continued pursuing its nuclear program.
According to the spokesperson, Iran had around 3000 missiles before the June 2025 war, many of which were used or destroyed during that conflict.
“By Saturday, when Operation Lion’s Roar began, it had managed to rebuild 2500 missiles through renewed and mass production.”
Since February 28, the Israelis and Americans believe that 86%of those 2500 missiles have either been destroyed, or were used up by Iran in attacks on many of its neighbors. That means Iran has only 350 of those missiles left.
In the eight months after the Twelve-Day War ended, until the end of February 2026, when the current war began, Iran had produced 2500 missiles, or a little more than 300 missiles each month. If the war in Iran were to end tomorrow — as China, Russia, Iran, Ilhan Omar, and Tucker Carlson all want — in the next twenty-two months (10 remaining months of 2026 and 12 months of 2027), Iran could produce 6600 ballistic missiles, which together with the 1500 it currently is believed to possess (though that number is swiftly decreasing thanks to Israeli and American attacks) would amount to 8100 missiles.
And some of those missiles could hit Europe. The longest-range Iranian missiles could even strike America:
According to reports, Iran has been developing an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 10,000 kilometers, which would put European and even American territory potentially within range, said Antonio Giustozzi from the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London.
That figure of 8000 ballistic missiles in Iran’s arsenal by the end of 2027 is meant, quite properly, to alert the world to what the Islamic Republic will be able to do unless the Israelis and Americans are backed to the hilt in their air campaigns, intended to destroy both missiles ready for launch and the plants where these ballistic missiles are being produced at the impressive rate of 300 a month.
In the same way, the Europeans need to be reminded that Iran’s recent threats to attack them is not an idle boast; Iran is now capable of producing, in limited quantities, long-range missiles that can reach not only Europe, but also the U.S.
But none of this need come to pass, if the Israeli and American Air Forces keep up their bombing campaigns to take out missiles and the plants that manufacture them. It’s clear that the Iranian regime has no intention of halting its ballistic missile production or its launching of many missiles, along with drones, at eleven of its neighbors. It has also warned European countries that if they support the Americans and the Israelis, they too will become the targets of long-range ballistic missiles.
That is why the Americans and Israelis have now made wiping out those ballistic missile plants and existing missiles an even higher priority than what remains of Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. As of March 5, Iran has lost 86% of its ballistic missiles. Israeli pilots now have their eyes on the missile factories, hoping to bring down Iran’s monthly production from 300 to zero. Anyone who has been following what the Israeli Air Force has accomplished in Tehran and a half-dozen other cities in the first five days of combat, has no doubt that the IAF will prove equal to that task. And by the end of 2027, instead of 8000 ballistic missiles, Iran will have 1,000-2,000, a most manageable number.
