As parties battle over redistricting to boost their chances in the 2026 midterm elections, Illinois’s 2022 maps and election results serve as a warning that gerrymandering can lead to unintended consequences of partisanship and misrepresentation in Congress.
Democrats and Republicans are pushing forward on plans to redraw congressional maps to offset each other’s gerrymandering in several states.
So far, Texas has signed a new map into law that targets five Democratic districts, including two of the most vulnerable House Democrats, to create five new GOP seats. Missouri Republicans are also on the verge of writing out longtime Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO) to give an additional one-seat boost for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) as he defends his razor-thin majority.
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It was not long ago that Illinois was in the same position as Texas, and Democrats were looking to protect a slim majority in the House under Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).
After the 2020 census, Illinois lost a congressional seat due to population decline, leading state lawmakers to try to gain an additional seat for Democrats under new maps.
The result? Two centrist Illinois Republicans — former Reps. Rodney Davis and Adam Kinzinger — were written out of Congress as the new maps “eviscerated” their districts. And Democrats lost the House, anyway.
Davis, who served in Congress from 2013 to 2023, told the Washington Examiner in an interview that redistricting is one of the few government practices “completely acceptable to be partisan.” But people shouldn’t be shocked by Texas and California’s efforts to gerrymander, given that Illinois did it just three years ago.
He said Democrats have an advantage, however, when challenging GOP-drawn maps. Republicans, he said, haven’t been as successful when they challenge Democratic-drawn maps. According to a Politico database, Democrats achieved more wins when their party, independent groups, and the courts combined oversaw redistricting versus the wins Republicans received overseeing the construction of new maps.
Ahead of the 2024 election, courts ruled that Alabama’s map was unconstitutional and required it to draw a second majority-black district. This allowed for a pick-up opportunity for Democrats and forced two Republicans into the same district for a rare incumbent vs. incumbent primary.
Davis had that experience, as well. In the 2022 primary, the former congressman faced Rep. Mary Miller (R-IL) for one seat in the House. This pitted Miller, a vocal supporter of President Donald Trump, against Davis, a centrist who supported an investigation into the U.S. Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021.
The district, which before 2022 had a constituency that leaned toward middle-of-the-road candidates, now has a far more conservative electorate. With an endorsement from Trump, Miller sailed to a 15-point victory, and Davis left Capitol Hill, which he attributes to Democratic gerrymandering.
“Democrats decided to try to make the only Republicans that were left were Republicans in R+20 type districts, and that type of district elects a different type of person to govern,” Davis said. “You have less competitive districts than when I first ran and won an even district in 2012, and that just sends a different, more partisan person from both sides of the aisle to Washington, D.C.”
Republican strategist Doug Heye pointed out the irony of Democrats’ redistricting attempt in a previous interview with the Washington Examiner.
“It wasn’t that long ago that Democrats were saying, ‘There should be more Adam Kinzingers,’ while drawing him out of his district. Rodney Davis, too,” Heye said.
After 2022, Illinois Democrats “tossed out two well-liked Republicans” while still losing the House to Republicans that year, Heye said.
Redistricting contributes to partisanship growing on Capitol Hill
The departure of centrist members for a more partisan Congress started before redistricting, said Illinois strategist Robin Johnson. In Illinois in particular, he said it’s “certainly part of it” but not the sole driving force behind Davis and Kinzinger’s losses.
“I think you’re seeing in other places without redistricting, that [Make America Great Again] Republicans are defeating those moderates,” Robin Johnson said, pointing to the fact that only two of the 10 House GOP lawmakers who voted to impeach Trump remain in office.
But he did note that redistricting certainly isn’t helping matters — particularly in Illinois, where the congressional map of districts is drawn unevenly and spaces like Chicago are included with suburbs miles away from the city limits.
“I think a general partisan gerrymandering like this is furthering the partisan divide in the country, because we’re just creating districts where members are in districts where they don’t have to speak to the other people, the other party, or independents, as much,” Robin Johnson said.
He added that in a district drawn 70% to 75% in favor of one party, in a primary, “you’re going to listen to the more compassionate, far-left, progressive on the Democratic side and far-right conservative on the Republican side.”
“It used to be you would run to your base in the primary and then to the middle in the generals,” the strategist said, and now members in Illinois don’t necessarily need to do that.
But they may. As Republicans look to other redistricting possibilities, Democrats face a reality that they may not have enough seats to counter gerrymandering if red states such as Indiana and Florida join Texas and Missouri in altering their maps.
When state Texas Democrats fled to Illinois as one of their states of refuge, eyes turned to Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker and whether he’d join Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) in calling for new maps. Pritzker has said it was “on the table,” but no serious efforts have been made.
Ryan Tolley, executive director of CHANGE Illinois, told local National Public Radio affiliate STLPR that it is unlikely that redistricting would yield any additional seats for Illinois Democrats, who hold a 14-3 majority in the state’s congressional delegation to the House.
“I don’t think anyone’s certain that it is [possible] at this point to add another Democratic district to the current map here,” Tolley said.
One unintended consequence of Illinois redistricting could be making some Democratic districts in the suburbs more competitive. The House delegation raised those very concerns with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) last week, noting they are worried their district could be flooded with new GOP voters, making it more difficult to win reelection in a tough midterm year.
Rep. Robin Kelly (D-IL), former chairwoman of the Democratic Party of Illinois, told Politico that up to four Democratic incumbents could face tougher races if the GOP-held seats were made bluer.
However, Kelly, who is running to replace outgoing Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), told the Washington Examiner that “all of us are willing to do what we have to do” to offset Republican redistricting efforts.
“We’re gonna do whatever we can to save this country, and if that’s what we have to do, we’re gonna do it.… Because what [red states are] doing, we can’t just let it stay. We have to fight fire with fire,” she said.
Another consequence could mirror that of 2022, where a more centrist Republican like Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL) could be at most risk for redistricting due to his district residing in central Illinois, versus Miller and Rep. Mike Bost’s (R-IL) districts sitting more downstate.
Robin Johnson said any of the three remaining GOP seats could become competitive, but the downstate representatives have the benefit of politics trending more conservative over the last 30 years. He attributed that to the decline of union strength, young people moving to the city, and party ideology becoming so polarized.
LaHood told the Washington Examiner he thinks Illinois serves as the “textbook definition” of gerrymandering and voters in the state have long been “disenfranchised” under “one-party rule.”
“It’s hypocritical of Governor Pritzker and other Democrats to ignore Illinois’ maps while criticizing states like Texas,” LaHood said in a statement.
He added that he strongly supports the fair maps initiative, noting that 45% of Illinois’s population votes Republican and “they deserve the opportunity to have a voice and to choose their politicians instead of the other way around.”
Davis said he doesn’t think there is a “danger” to redistricting, noting it is simply a “political calculation” that voters need to play a role in maintaining.
“I don’t begrudge the states for doing what they believe their voters would want them to do, and I don’t believe that the federal government should take over the redistricting processes,” he said.
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But he pointed out that Pritzker promised to veto partisan maps and campaigned on amending the Illinois constitution to create an independent redistricting commission similar to California’s. He reneged on that promise in 2021, signing the map that cost Davis and Kinzinger their seats.
“Voters need to understand that they need to elect people who will make promises to not participate in blatant gerrymandering, like Gov. Pritzker did,” the former congressman said. “And then, if they break their promises, like Gov. Pritzker did, that they become, they are held accountable at the at the ballot box.”
