As it stands, Democrats need a net gain of three seats to win control of the House of Representatives next year, raising the stakes for President Donald Trump and GOP leadership to maintain the trifecta won during the 2024 election and prevent a Democrat-control House from blocking the president’s agenda in the second half of his final term.
A quirk in Ohio law allows for mid-decade redistricting if the congressional map does not have bipartisan support.
The 2022 legislative map for Ohio gives Republicans a 10-5 district advantage, but Republicans in the state are looking to unseat two or three Democrats to make the edge 12-3 or 13-2 for the GOP.
Rep. Marcy Kaptur (OH-D) and Rep. Emilia Skye (OH-D), the two most vulnerable Ohio Democrats, narrowly won their districts in 2024. Kaptur’s district went to Trump in the presidential race, while Skyes’s barely went to former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Republicans may also target Rep. Greg Landsman (D-OH), who represents Cincinnati.
Meanwhile, in Texas, state legislators are considering calling a special legislative session for mid-decade map drawing to gain as many as five additional Republican seats.
If Republicans are successful, Democrats could require a net gain of 11 seats — up from three — to regain control of the House.
The districts most at risk fall along the US-Mexico border and went to Trump in the 2024 election, following the broader realignment of the Latino voting block in recent elections.
Two primary targets for Republicans in Texas are Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-TX), representing the Rio Grande Valley and parts of San Antonio, and Vincente Gonzales Jr (D-TX), representing Corpus Christi.
Republicans in both Texas and Ohio hope to shift right-leaning constituents from districts currently held by the GOP into new districts in an effort to tip the scales and make the majority of residents Republican.
However, redistricting could become a two-edged sword for Republicans, making GOP members of Congress in swing districts more vulnerable to Democratic challenges.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) earlier this month expressed strong support for talks between Texas Republicans and the White House regarding redistricting in the Lone Star state.
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He said that a redistricting effort could make GOP-held districts more competitive and “open up four to six swing seat opportunities that don’t exist right now for Democrats.
“Be careful what you wish for because you just might get it,” Jeffries said. “And you won’t like the result.”
