President Donald Trump, on his Truth Social platform, stated on Tuesday that Ukraine, with the support of NATO and the European Union, could “fight and win all of Ukraine back in its original form.” He described Russia as a “paper tiger” and said Ukraine “is only getting better.”
It is too early to call this a new policy. Trump has changed his position on Ukraine many times. He has alternated between sympathetic remarks about Russian President Vladimir Putin and critical statements about Ukraine, while also moving from skepticism toward Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to support for the Ukrainian leader. Still, if Trump follows through on his recent statement, the prospect of real peace becomes more plausible.
That’s because Moscow is unlikely to reconsider its maximalist position on Ukraine unless it faces the real prospect of a Ukrainian victory or heavy pushback by the United States. Providing Ukraine with new weapons, imposing secondary sanctions on Moscow, and the targeting of Russian oil revenues could convince the Kremlin that continued war is unwinnable. In turn, Putin might come to a more serious negotiation position.
Until now, however, Moscow’s version of peace has always meant Kyiv’s capitulation. The Kremlin’s goal is not simply to seize land but to erase Ukraine’s sovereignty, collapse its statehood, and diminish Western international power. On the battlefield, Russia has been unable to secure a decisive victory for three and a half years. If it also comes to understand that it cannot force concessions at the negotiating table, that may be the point at which it is prepared for a more practical conversation.
Ukraine has already shown it can win against Russia. The defense of Kyiv in 2022 forced Moscow to back off. Since then, Ukraine has continued to adapt and hold ground, proving that the Russian military is not unstoppable. With sustained assistance, it can keep altering Moscow’s assessment of what is achievable. Indeed, recent realities on the battlefield prove the point. Russia’s summer offensive again fell short of its objectives. Despite launching major assaults across several fronts, Moscow gained little ground while incurring heavy losses in troops and equipment. It failed to capture key cities or encircle Ukrainian forces, leaving the front lines largely intact.
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Trump’s pursuit of peace is noble.
But a genuinely just peace deal will only be possible if Russia concludes it cannot weaken U.S. support or cripple Ukraine’s defenses. Such a deal must rest on firm guarantees of Ukraine’s sovereignty and security, ideally through NATO membership. If not, through a substantial European military presence with American backing that preserves Ukraine’s post-war borders in deterrence of any future Russian assault. Moreover, a possible settlement should not recognize Russia’s territorial gains, since legitimizing conquest would encourage renewed aggression. Without these conditions, peace would mean renewed conflict later down the road.
Trump may have finally recognized Putin’s game. If his statement were now to become policy, this could be the moment when American resolve, rather than Russian bombs, turns the tide toward peace.
