The top two Republicans in Congress are keeping expectations low for their party as voters head to the polls for a spate of elections viewed as bellwethers for next year.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said Tuesday that, barring a “surprise,” voters are on track to elect Democrats in statewide elections in Virginia and New Jersey, plus a mayoral race in New York City.
“Today is a big election day in these blue states. We certainly hope for a surprise. But, I mean, it won’t be a big surprise if the front-runners, the Democrats, the radicals, win some of these elections,” Johnson said in opening remarks at his press conference.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) similarly tempered expectations, telling the Washington Examiner, “I assume they may very well perform well.”
Recent polls show some of the Republican candidates in neck-and-neck matches. Jack Ciattarelli, who is running for governor of New Jersey, is just 3 points behind his Democratic opponent, Mickie Sherill, and the attorney general race in Virginia is also extremely close.
Yet Republicans are bracing for the possibility of a nightmare scenario in which Democrats not only win, but win resoundingly. Traditionally, New Jersey and Virginia have been blue strongholds, but the overperformance of Republicans, including President Donald Trump, in those states has put them under a microscope.
Republicans are also feeling pessimistic about their chances of keeping the governor’s mansion in Virginia, where current Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is running to replace Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA).
“Of course, everybody will be spinning it based on what expectations were and all that,” Thune said, before cautioning reporters against reading too much into election night.
In particular, analysts are looking to see whether the races mirror the strong turnout Democrats have seen in other off-year races, particularly special elections for open House seats.
“I think if you look at these races that are being run, most of them are kind of focused on local issues,” Thune added. “I mean, some of them are focused on economic issues, which will be an issue in the midterm elections, but I think we’ve got a great case to make next year.”
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Johnson said he is “watching New York City very closely,” using the mayoral election to tie congressional Democrats to socialist Zohran Mamdani, who is expected to defeat former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, the independent, on Tuesday night.
“They’re terrified the Marxists are taking over their party, and the evidence today may show that that is true,” Johnson said.
