On Sunday, trucks armed with hundreds of drones were driven to the perimeters of Russian air force bases. These trucks’ ostensible cargo was unassuming sheds. However, under the roofs of these sheds were hundreds of Ukrainian drones. When the moment was right, the drones were released with an automatic door to devastating effect.
Five Russian airfields were attacked. The drones destroyed 40 aircraft, which represents 34% of the Kremlin’s strategic cruise missile carriers, according to Ukrainian officials.
What is perhaps most surprising is that this devastating offensive literally flew under the nose of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB). In fact, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, “What’s most interesting, and this can now be stated publicly, is that the ‘office’ of our operation on Russian territory was located directly next to FSB headquarters in one of their regions.”
Not only that, but the Ukrainian trucks were undetected, and all the drone operators escaped Russian territory without being caught. It was a play right out of the Russian playbook, as a Russian and Ukrainian delegation were set to meet (and did meet) in Istanbul, Turkey, for the next round of peace talks on Monday. As Russia has done so many times before, Ukraine pulled off an offensive that will hurt the Russians in a tangible way.
This should shake Russian intelligence to the core. It’s a Ukrainian intelligence coup.
This bold operation, dubbed “Operation Spider’s Web,” was a year in the making and is very reminiscent of Israel’s pager and walkie-talkie attack on Hezbollah. Both were extraordinary operations with lots of moving parts.
The next question is, what does Russian President Vladimir Putin do to retaliate or escalate the war further?
Putin is clearly not looking for an off-ramp to get out of this war. He’s in too deep and has been getting mixed signals from President Donald Trump, who threatened Zelensky to get him to the negotiating table but then signed a minerals deal with Ukraine so that the U.S. has a stronger strategic interest in the non-ally country. This succeeded in getting Ukraine to the table, but not Russia. Putin subsequently decided to play his favorite game of jerking America’s chain. Putin knows this war is a numbers game. He has plenty of men to throw into the meat grinder on the front lines (including North Korean troops) and has nothing to lose.
Putin may try to wait out Trump’s second and final term in the hope that America elects another feckless Democrat president in 2028.
Perhaps Putin is hoping that Vice President JD Vance is serious when he articulated that he believes this war is hopeless for the Ukrainians; therefore, the U.S. should withdraw its financial and armaments support.
Or perhaps Putin’s targeting of civilians will finally outrage the West enough that he is clocked hard with a more united front on sanctions.
Either way, Putin has a blind spot in his intelligence — and that probably has him pretty worried. Don’t be surprised to see some intelligence officers “disappeared.”
Finally, as the editors of The Wall Street Journal argue, a big lesson from Ukraine’s successful assault is that “President Trump’s planned Golden Dome missile-defense shield isn’t the boondoggle it’s portrayed to be in the press.” Mark Alexander explained the Golden Dome last month — just in time, it seems.
