The “demographics is destiny” theory pushed by Obama-era Democrats is being rapidly exposed for the racist sham it always was. The idea that increasing the nation’s racial and ethnic diversity would necessarily benefit the Democratic Party presupposed that minority voters all think the same way — a disreputable idea embraced historically by many Democrats and some Republicans.
New data from the Pew Research Center deals the theory a death blow. Nearly half of Hispanic voters supported President Donald Trump in the 2024 election, an increase of 12 points from his showing in 2020 with the rapidly growing ethnic bloc. Support for Democrats among Hispanic voters fell for the fourth consecutive presidential election. In 2012, then-President Barack Obama won 71% of the Hispanic vote, but last year, then-Vice President Kamala Harris won only 51%.
The Hispanic drift away from Democrats included men and women at nearly the same rate. Hispanic men and women supported Trump in 2024 by 50% and 46%, respectively. This was a 13-point gain for Trump with Hispanic women relative to 2020 and defied election forecasts. A Pew poll from September 2024 showed Harris with a 21-point lead over Trump with this group.
The new data also reveal an intensity gap between Republican and Democratic Hispanic supporters: 86% of Trump’s 2020 Hispanic supporters voted in 2024 compared to only 77% of former President Joe Biden’s 2020 Hispanic voters. New Hispanic voters also broke hard for Trump. Among Hispanic eligible voters who did not vote in 2020 but did vote in 2024, 60% voted for Trump, while only 37% voted for Harris.
Democrats also hemorrhaged votes among young Hispanics in 2024, suggesting their troubles with the group will continue for a long time. In 2020, 73% of Hispanics under 30 voted for Biden, but only 57% voted for Harris.
The cause for the Hispanic drift toward the GOP is easily understood. Like most Americans, Hispanic people increasingly dislike the party’s left-wing policies, especially on the economy and immigration.
Hispanic and black voters are more likely to feel the pinch of inflation than their white and Asian counterparts. The Democratic Party’s inflationary policies, including the preposterously named Inflation Reduction Act signed by Biden, poisoned the Democratic brand for Hispanics. Two-thirds of Hispanic voters considered the economy to be in poor shape in 2024 and claimed to be less financially secure than in previous years. Meanwhile, Hispanic trust in Trump’s ability to manage the economy, other than in the early days of COVID-19, increased over time.
Growing Hispanic support for Trump’s immigration program and diminishing support for the Democrats’ chaotic open border policies also play a pivotal role. A Pew study from June found that 42% of Hispanic voters favor building more of the U.S. border wall, up from 24% in 2019. Similarly, a 2024 Axios poll found 45% of Hispanic voters saying they support mass deportations of illegal immigrants.
Hispanic voters in border counties have sprinted away from the Democrats. In 2016, Trump lost Starr County, Texas, which is preponderantly Hispanic, by 60 points to Hillary Clinton. But in 2024, he won it by 16 points, a 76-point swing in the course of eight years. Trump’s win in Starr County was the first by a Republican since 1896.
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Naturalized citizens, immigrants who have attained U.S. citizenship, have also abandoned the Democratic Party on immigration. Today, they trust Republicans more on the issue by 8 points, a 40-point swing from only four years ago. The Democrats’ racist expectation that legal Hispanic citizens would prioritize their ethnic affiliation with many illegal immigrants instead of the rule of law and safety backfired.
Responding to the needs of Hispanic voters who say they want financial stability and safe communities would allow Democrats to stop the bleeding. But recent events, including the Democrats’ embrace of illegal immigrant Kilmar Abrego Garcia and the cheap stunt performed by Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) at Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s press conference in Los Angeles, mean Democrats still have a long way to go before they reach rock bottom in support by Hispanic voters.
