- State pension age would need to hit 75 to maintain today’s worker-to-pensioner ratio
- Britain now needs 250,000 more births every year to maintain a stable population without migration
- Collapsing family formation means 600,000 women today risk missing out on motherhood compared to grandparents’ generation
Britain’s collapsing birth rate means children in school today could face working until 75 before receiving a state pension, according to a report.
The warning come influential think tank the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) in a new report, Baby Bust: Helping families realise their dreams of parenthood, which argues that declining birth rates combined with rising life expectancy are placing unsustainable pressure on the UK’s pension system.
The think tank’s analysis shows that if the government attempted to maintain today’s ratio of workers to pensioners, the state pension age would need to rise steadily over the coming decades meaning that children aged 8 and under today may not retire until they are 75.
Researchers say the pressure is being driven by a long-running demographic shift.
Analysis of figures from the ONS show that in 1970 there were four working-age people for every pensioner. By 2025 the ratio has already fallen to 3.5 workers per pensioner, and under current trends it is expected to fall to around 2 workers per pensioner in fewer than 90 years.
At the same time, the UK is seeing record low birth rates. In 2024 the UK’s Total Fertility Rate fell to 1.41, far below the 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain a stable population.
The CSJ warns that this demographic imbalance means fewer workers will be supporting more retirees, placing mounting pressure on taxes, pensions and public services.
The Office for Budget Responsibility has also warned that, on current trends, UK public debt could rise to around 270 per cent of GDP by the early 2070s as ageing pushes up spending on pensions, health and social care.
Britain currently has around 13 million people aged over 65, a number expected to rise to over 17 million by 2043, increasing the share of older people in the population from roughly one in five today to one in four within two decades.
The report also finds that Britain now needs almost 250,000 additional births per year to maintain a stable population. In 2024 there were 831,075 people turning 50 but just 594,677 births, leaving a “birth gap” of around 30 per cent.
The think tank argues that without a reversal in declining birth rates, younger generations will face growing fiscal pressure as they are expected to fund pensions, healthcare and care costs for an increasingly elderly population.
The report emphasises that the pension system is funded by current taxpayers, rather than by individuals saving for their own retirement, meaning the sustainability of the system depends on a sufficiently large working-age population.
The CSJ also notes that high levels of immigration have temporarily slowed the demographic shift but cannot solve the underlying problem, as age and fertility rates among migrants also tend to fall over time.
The report says that falling birth rates are largely driven not by smaller families, but by a rising number of women never becoming mothers at all, often because family formation is delayed by economic and social pressures.
Its analysis suggests that around three million women aged 16 to 45 today are projected not to have children under current trends. If motherhood rates matched those seen among their grandparents’ generation, that figure would be closer to 2.4 million.
This means that around 600,000 women today may miss out on motherhood compared with earlier patterns of family formation – many of whom had hoped to start families but faced growing barriers to doing so.
The report therefore calls for a renewed focus on supporting family formation earlier in adulthood, arguing that Britain must begin addressing the social and economic barriers that prevent people from having the children they hope for.
Edward Davies, Research Director at the Centre for Social Justice, said:
“Britain is heading off a demographic cliff edge. When fewer children are born, fewer workers enter the labour force, and the burden of supporting an ageing population falls on a shrinking number of taxpayers.
“If we try to maintain today’s balance between workers and pensioners, children in school today could be working well into their seventies before they qualify for a state pension.
“This reflects a catastrophic failure to support the next generation of families. Most young people still want children, but too many feel unable to have them. If we want a sustainable economy and a society that cares properly for the elderly, we must start taking family seriously again.”
Notes to editors
Methodology:
The CSJ analysed Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2022-based National Population Projections and ONS Old Age Dependency Ratio (OADR) statistics – the number of pensioners relative to the working-age population.
CSJ analysis of the projections show a substantial long-term rise in the number of pensioners relative to working-age people. In 2025 there are around 280 pensioners for every 1,000 working-age people (defined as those aged 16 to State Pension Age). This figure is expected to over 490 pensioners per 1,000 working-age people by the early 22nd century.
The CSJ then modelled what would happen if the government attempted to maintain the current OADR rather than allowing it to rise. In this scenario, the number of people receiving the state pension would have to grow far more slowly than currently projected.
Under existing projections the number of people above State Pension Age is expected to rise from around 12.6 million in 2025 to approximately 23.4 million by 2122. If the current dependency ratio were maintained, this population would instead rise to around 15.5 million over the same period.
The analysis therefore estimates the State Pension Age increases required to maintain the current dependency ratio, incorporating already legislated increases to the pension age. Under this scenario the pension age would need to continue rising throughout the century, reaching 75 for those who are aged 8 and under today.
