U.S. recession odds in 2025 are at an all-time low, according to betting odds at a popular prediction market.
The chances of a recession in the U.S. have fallen from 70%, a record high reached in April, to 18% as of Saturday, the lowest recorded odds this year on the cryptocurrency-based betting site Polymarket.
In May, Polymarket saw recession fears plummet as consumer confidence continued to climb.
By early June, the perceived probability of a recession hovered near Inauguration Day numbers, per Polymarket.
However, the risk of a recession still looms over the U.S.
In order for the recession bet on Polymarket to pay out, resolving the market to “Yes,” the following win conditions must be met: two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Bureau of Economic Research publicly declares a recession at any point in 2025.
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Back in March, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he did not expect the U.S. economy to experience a recession under the Trump administration.
“There’s going to be no recession in America,” Lutnick told NBC’s Meet the Press at the time, adding, “You’re going to see over the next two years the greatest set of growth coming from America as Americans…Donald Trump is bringing growth to America. I would never bet on recession. No chance.”
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When asked by host Kristen Welker whether Americans should brace for a recession at all, Lutnick said, “Absolutely not. Anybody who bets against Donald Trump, it’s like the same people who thought Donald Trump wasn’t a winner a year ago. Donald Trump is a winner. He’s going to win for the American people. That’s just the way it’s going to be.”
At a House oversight hearing before the appropriations subcommittee, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed sentiments, telling lawmakers in May, “There is nothing in the data that shows that we are in a recession.” He then referenced the stronger-than-expected jobs report.
