There are fake polls out there, but the real polling is pretty clear.
75% of New York State Jews have a negative view of Mamdani. Only 15% have a positive one.
Siena did include a smaller New York City voter survey with a fairly small sample size. It’s less reliable for polling Jews because of that small total sample size since 317 voters means we’re probably looking at a Jewish sample size in the low double digits.
It shows 44% of Jews voting for Cuomo, 23% voting for Sliwa, and 20% voting for Mamdani.
The New York Times/Siena poll shows no Jewish affinity for Mamdani either.
A lot of people are citing the FOX News poll claiming that Cuomo and Mamdani are neck and neck among Jewish voters.
The poll is wrong. Period.
One tell is that margin of error at 9.5% for its Jewish respondents is higher than any other group.
A second tell is that credible polling has significant Jewish backing for Sliwa while the FOX News poll shows very little. A third tell is that New York City has the largest Jewish conservative base in the country, which was reflected not only in polls, but in actual elections, and yet the FOX News poll shows Jews as cliched liberals. What that indicates to me is that unlike the Times/Siena poll, the FOX News poll really did not sample Orthodox Jews.
The non-Jewish parts of the FOX News poll are also dubious. The FOX News poll shows Hochul with a much higher approval rating than she has in real life.
And the biggest red flag for the FOX News poll is it would have us believe that 42% of New Yorkers are satisfied with the way things are today. I have never seen any numbers like that. Most New Yorkers are quite unhappy and that’s one of the things driving the Mamdani campaign.
What went wrong with the FOX News poll? I don’t know. Liberals were clearly oversampled. But it doesn’t reflect the reality of Jewish voters or New York City voters.
