The Iranian attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar was coordinated in a way to ensure that there is little to no escalation in the conflict, getting the “off-ramp that it wanted.”
Iran launched short- and medium-range ballistic missiles on Monday around 7:30 p.m. Qatar time at Al Udeid Air Base, according to a U.S. defense official, where roughly 10,000 troops are stationed. There have been no reported casualties so far.
Brian Carter, an expert with the American Enterprise Institute, told the Washington Examiner that Iran needed to be seen to respond, but did so in a limited fashion so as not to escalate the situation any further.
“Any time that you put missiles in the air and target another country’s base, you’re incurring some risk that you’re going to cause casualties … the risk that Iran took here was very limited,” he said.
“[Tehran] had to flex its muscles without provoking an all-out war, and it got the off-ramp,” Carter added. “Iran got the off-ramp that it wanted. Now the key step here will be for the United States to decide how to handle these … negotiations going forward.”
In the aftermath of the attempted Qatar attack, President Donald Trump said, “Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered. I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured.”
He added, “I am pleased to report that, in addition to no Americans being killed or wounded, very importantly, there have also been no Qataris killed or wounded.”
The United States long knew about the possibility that its bases in the region could come under attack, especially if it attacked Iranian nuclear facilities, which occurred over the weekend.
As the U.S. military bolstered its presence in the region ahead of Israel’s opening attack on Iran earlier this month. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from bases across the Middle East.
Shortly before the attack, a White House official told the Washington Examiner that the White House and Pentagon were closely following “potential threats” to the Al Udeid Air Base.
While U.S. officials threatened to respond if Iran attacked U.S. forces in the region, Carter said he does not believe the Trump administration will feel a need to retaliate given the forewarning.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel is “very, very close” to achieving its war objectives in Iran, and said he wants to avoid getting dragged into a “war of attrition.”
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With the Israelis aiming to meet their goals in the near term, Trump is hoping “Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same.”
Carter added, “I think Iran wants to get out of this fight, if they can find a way out.”
