TRUMP: ‘NOTHING IS GONNA HAPPEN UNTIL PUTIN AND I GET TOGETHER’: Low-level talks began in Istanbul today with Ukrainian and Russian negotiators meeting directly for the first time in more than three years. However, with Russian President Vladimir Putin declining Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s offer to go mano a mano to work out a ceasefire deal, expectations are decidedly low.
Speaking to reporters on Air Force One yesterday, President Donald Trump excused Putin’s absence by portraying himself as the key to any progress. “Look, nothing is going to happen until Putin and I get together, ok? And obviously, he wasn’t going to go. He was going to go, but he thought I was going to go. He wasn’t going if I wasn’t there,” Trump said. “I don’t believe anything’s going to happen, whether you like it or not, until he and I get together. But we’re going to have to get it because too many people are dying.”
Today on Air Force One, Trump said he plans to talk to Putin next week, and expressed optimism he can break the deadlock. “We want to see if we can bring that war to an end. Maybe we can, maybe we can’t, but I think we have a very good chance,” he told reporters. “I’ll be speaking to President Putin on Tuesday,” he added. We’re doing pretty well, I think, with Russia, we have something to announce maybe by Tuesday.”
RUBIO: TRUMP THE ‘ONLY ONE WHO CAN BREAK THIS LOGJAM;’ Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was already planning to be in Turkey for a NATO foreign ministers meeting, took one look at the delegation Putin sent to meet with the Ukrainians — led by a former culture minister who has not been involved in any previous talks — and realized nothing significant was going to happen.
“The level of team that was sent by the Russian side is certainly not indicative of one that’s going to lead to a major breakthrough,” Rubio said before departing Antalya for Istanbul. “We came because we were told that there might be a direct engagement between the Russians and the Ukrainians; that was originally the plan,” Rubio said. “That was not to be the case, or, if it is, it’s not at the levels we had hoped it would be at.”
“I think the next thing that has to happen here for there to be a breakthrough, if there’s going to be one, is going to involve President Trump’s direct involvement,” Rubio said. “The only way we’re going to have a breakthrough here is with President Trump sitting face to face with President Putin and determining, once and for all, whether there’s a path to peace and, if so, what it is.”
“The President – look, he’s willing to stick with this as long as it takes to achieve peace,” Rubio said. “What we cannot do, however, is continue to fly all over the world and engage in meetings that are not going to be productive.”
EDITORIAL: IN PRAISE OF MARCO RUBIO, TRUMP’S MR. FIX IT
‘PUTIN HAS SHOWN HIS TRUE COLORS’: Many in Congress are convinced Putin is just playing for time and demonstrated he is not serious about seeking a lasting peace deal with Ukraine.
“Just like President Trump, I want an end to this war that never should have started. The president has been working to bring both sides together, but Putin has shown his true colors and again refused to come to the table,” said Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), who, along with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), has cosponsored legislation that would slap new sanctions on Russia and actors supporting Russia, as well as strengthen enforcement of current sanctions. “I support President Trump’s efforts to get a peace deal done now and will keep working with my colleagues to equip the president to enforce crippling sanctions on Russia if they continue to drag out peace talks and the needless bloodshed.”
In an appearance on Fox Business News, retired Army Gen. Jack Keane, chairman of the board at the Institute for the Study of War, called Putin’s dispatch of low-level bureaucrats to Istanbul a “snub” and said, “It’s obvious that Putin is not on the same page” as Zelensky and Trump. “Putin is not serious here,” Keane said, noting the bipartisan support in Congress for “crippling sanctions,” not just from the U.S. but also by Europe. “I think that is likely where we’re going to be heading,” Keane said, along with “continued military assistance.”
In its latest assessment, the ISW noted that Russia is making essentially the same demands it made at the outset of the war in early 2022 when it seemed to have the upper hand. “Russia is now attempting to reiterate these same demands after three years of war, despite the fact that Ukrainian forces have since successfully forced Russia to withdraw from northern Ukraine, liberated significant swaths of territory in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts, and blunted the Russian rate of advance across the theater.”
OPINION: UKRAINIAN AGONY: WHY EUROPE OWES A DEBT TO UKRAINE
Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre.
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HAPPENING TODAY: BIG, BEAUTIFUL SHOWDOWN: We’ll get the first solid indication if House Speaker Mike Johnson is going to be able to fulfill his pledges to pass President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” of tax and spending cuts and along with increases in defense and border spending by Memorial Day when the House Budget Committee marks up the legislation at 9 a.m.
The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” runs an impressive 1,116 pages and contains an extra $119 billion for defense, which Trump is counting on to bring the Pentagon budget to a whopping $1 trillion.
Republican infighting over Medicaid work requirements and raising the state and local taxes cap, known as SALT, is threatening to derail the legislation, reports Rachel Schilke, Washington Examiner congressional reporter.
“Reps. Chip Roy (R-TX), Ralph Norman (R-SC), and Andrew Clyde (R-GA), all who sit on the Budget Committee, are all currently “no” votes, Schilke reported. That’s bad news for Johnson, who can only afford to lose one or two GOP votes, depending on attendance. Rep. Brandon Gill (R-TX) is out on paternity leave, which gives Johnson only a one-vote margin of error.
BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL IN THE BALANCE: GOP FRACTURES OVER MEDICAID WORK REQUIREMENTS
TRUMP’S IRAN PRONOUNCEMENTS MAKING GOP LAWMAKERS NERVOUS: In his public comments at a business roundtable in Doha on Thursday, President Trump raised concern about whether he is ready to cut a deal with Iran that would allow it to retain nuclear facilities for the peaceful generation of electricity, one of Tehran’s key demands.
“Iran has sort of agreed to the terms. They’re not going to make, what I call it, in a friendly way, nuclear dust. We’re not going to be making any nuclear dust in Iran,” he said. “We’ll see what happens, but we’re in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace, and if we do that, it’ll be fantastic.”
Trump reiterated his single demand, “They can’t have a nuclear weapon. That’s the only thing. It’s very simple,” while indicating a deal is close.
On Wednesday, Ali Shamkhani, a top political, military, and nuclear adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told NBC News that Iran is ready to sign a nuclear deal under terms in which Iran would commit to never making nuclear weapons, getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, and agreeing to enrich uranium only to the lower levels needed for civilian use.
Meanwhile, all but one Republican senator in Congress signed a letter this week calling on President Trump to “secure a deal that results in the full dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear program, including permanently ending the regime’s capacity to enrich uranium.”
“We cannot afford another agreement that enables Iran to play for time, as the JCPOA did. The Iranian regime should know that the administration has Congressional backing to ensure their ability to enrich uranium is permanently eliminated,” the letter states.
TRUMP’S VERY POSSIBLE MISSION: GET AN IRAN DEAL THAT’S BETTER THAN OBAMA’S
COMING ATTRACTIONS: ‘THE F-55 AND F-22 SUPER’: Toward the end of his rambling discourse in Doha, Trump revealed that he’s eyeing a couple of expensive, unfunded programs that would add two new jet fighter planes to the Air Force combat fleet.
Flanked by executives from Boeing and GE Aerospace, Trump said he was “looking at” developing a two-engine version of the F-35, which he called the F-55, as well as commissioning a new version of the venerable F-22 Raptor, which he called an “F-22 Super.”
“I asked to look into the F-35. We’re doing an upgrade a simple upgrade, but we’re also doing an F-55 — I’m going to call it an F-55 — and that’s going to be a substantial upgrade, but it’s going to be also with two engines because the F-35 has a single engine.”
“I don’t like single engines,” Trump said, turning to Larry Culp of GE. “This man, he’s the best in the world at engines, but on occasion — I know you won’t admit this — if an engine goes out, it’s nice to have two, three, or four. That’s why I like the 747. It’s got four.”
“Then we’re going to do the F-22,” Trump continued. “I think the most beautiful fighter jet in the world is the F-22, but we’re going to do an F-22 Super, and it’ll be a very modern version of the F-22 fighter jet.”
Aviation experts were quick to throw cold water on the plans. “An overly simplistic and impractical concept,” wrote defense writer Michael Peck on 19fortyfivecom. “Whatever the problems of the F-35 fighter — and there are many — one thing seems clear: adding a second engine won’t fix them.”
“As might be expected from a politician and businessman who believes that more is better, it is not surprising that Trump believes that more engines makes for a better fighter,” Peck wrote, while noting that when it comes to the 30-year-old design of the F-22, “The redesign would likely be substantial enough that the result would be a totally new aircraft.”
“Whether all these fighter projects will come to fruition is unlikely,” he concluded. “Budget constraints, plus multiple changes of occupant in the White House, will inevitably change priorities. How many engines a fighter has will be the least of these issues.”
In a statement, Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for both the F-35 and the F-22, thanked President Trump “for his support of the F-35 and F-22 and will continue to work closely with the Administration to realize its vision for air dominance.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Trump’s very possible mission: Get an Iran deal that’s better than Obama’s
Washington Examiner: DIA releases assessment warning of ‘advanced’ weaponry dangers from US foes
Washington Examiner: Trump suggests US ‘take’ Gaza and turn it into ‘freedom zone’
Washington Examiner: Trump teases military pay raise in Qatar with Theo Von in tow to visit troops
Washington Examiner: Tom Rogan Opinion: Jordan saves children in Gaza while others protest for show
Washington Examiner: John Bolton unloads on Steve Witkoff: ‘He knows nothing’
Washington Examiner: ‘They will eat your liver’: John Kennedy compares Qatar to Hannibal Lecter
Washington Examiner: Big beautiful bill in the balance: GOP fractures over Medicaid work requirements
Washington Examiner: Collins grilled on VA force reduction and veteran homelessness during House hearing
Washington Examiner: Border crossings down 99%, even fewer headed to US
Washington Examiner: Tom Rogan Opinion: Republicans should let the ‘one big, beautiful bill’ die on SALT hill
Washington Examiner: Biden aides shielded him from wary Cabinet members for last two years in office, Tapper-Thompson book says
Washington Examiner: Comey’s ‘8647’ message ‘concerns’ White House and prompts DHS investigation
Washington Examiner: Gabbard says Comey should be ‘put behind bars’ for ‘8647’ post
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Trump just killed America’s best potential defense market
Washington Examiner: Christopher Tremoglie Opinion: Ukrainian agony: Why Europe owes a debt to Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Editorial: In praise of Marco Rubio, Trump’s Mr. Fix It
The Atlantic: Trump’s Real Secretary of State
Wall Street Journal: DHS Seeks Over 20,000 National Guard Troops for Immigration Enforcement
Washington Post: Price Tag for Trump’s Military Festival Could Reach $45 Million
Forbes: Why The Qataris Are Happy To Dump Their 747 On Trump
AP: Homeland Security Looks to Buy a New $50M Jet for Secretary and Coast Guard Officials
The War Horse: One Trillion Dollars?! Nine Charts to Help Demystify the Pentagon’s Budget
Stars and Stripes: Russian Fighter Plane Breaches Estonian Airspace Amid Drill by NATO Countries
Air & Space Forces Magazine: How Golden Dome Will Help Create Space Superiority
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Golden Dome’s Price Tag Will Likely Exceed Half a Trillion Dollars, Space Force Chief Says
Breaking Defense: Space Force Testing Space-Based Sensors to Track Airborne Targets
Defense News: Army Explores Ultra-Long-Range Launched Effects to Spy from the Sky
DefenseScoop: Space Force Still Weighing Cost, Operational Advantages of Satellite Refueling Tech
AP: Space Force, Governors at Odds Over Plans to Pull Talent from National Guard Units
Defense News: Army Halves Spy Plane Fleet Before First Takeoff
Aviation Week: US Army Leader: Aviation Cuts Hurt, But Are Necessary
Inside Defense: Defense Intel Chiefs Expect Challenges Amid Personnel Cuts, New Border Missions
Breaking Defense: As Peru Seeks New Fighter Jets, Global Firms Jockey for Position
Military.com: Pentagon Will Use Health Screenings, Commanders to Ferret Out Trans Troops for Separations
Militarycom: Military Moves, School Enrollment and Spouse Employment Were Upended by Tuberville Promotions Blockade
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Airmen Have Just Days Left To Apply For Select Retention Bonus
THE CALENDAR:
FRIDAY | MAY 16
7:45 a.m. 300 First St. SE — National Institute for Deterrence Studies seminar: “Strategic Shield: The Role of Sentinel and B-21 in U.S. Nuclear Deterrence,” with Lt. Gen. Andrew Gebara, Air Force deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/strategic-shield-the-role-of-sentinel-b-21
9 a.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Cyber, Information Technology, and Innovation Subcommittee hearing: “FY2026 Review of the Department of Defense’s Cyber Posture,” with testimony from Laurie Buckhout, performing the duties of assistant Defense secretary for cyber policy; and Lt. Gen. William Hartman, acting commander, U.S. Cyber Command, performing duties of director, National Security Agency and chief of the Central Security Service http://www.armedservices.house.gov
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Securing the Future of U.S. Quantum Leadership,” with Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL); James Lewis, fellow, CSIS Center for European Policy Analysis; and Matt Pearl, director, CSIS Strategic Technologies Program https://www.csis.org/events/securing-future-us-quantum
10 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual book discussion: Putin’s Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine, with author Lucian Kim, senior analyst, International Crisis Group for Ukraine; and Natasha Bertrand, national security correspondent at CNN https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/lucian-kim-on-putins-revenge
12 p.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: “How Russian Society Is Adapting to Wartime Conditions,” with Vladimir Zvonovsky, sociologist and president of the Social Research Foundation https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/how-russian-society-is-adapting-to-wartime-conditions
TUESDAY | MAY 20
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “The Posture of the Department of the Air Force in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2026 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Air Force Secretary Troy Meink; Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin.; Space Force Gen. B. Chance Saltzman, chief of space operations http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “Review of the FY2026 State Department Budget Request,” with testimony from Secretary of State Marco Rubio http://foreign.senate.gov
10:15 a.m. 226 Dirksen — Senate Judiciary Committee hearing: “Defending Against Drones: Setting Safeguards for Counter Unmanned Aircraft Systems Authorities” http://judiciary.senate.gov
10:30 a.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing: “The Department of Energy’s Atomic Energy Defense Activities and Department of Defense Nuclear Weapons Program in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2026 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from James McConnell, acting principal deputy administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration; Roger Jarrell, principal deputy assistant Energy secretary for environmental management; Adm. William Houston, director, Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program; Brandi Vann, performing the duties of the assistant Defense secretary for nuclear, chemical, and biological defense programs; David Hoagland, acting deputy administrator for defense programs in the National Nuclear Security Administration; Gen. Thomas Bussiere, commander, Air Force Global Strike Command and commander of Air Forces Strategic – Air, U.S. Strategic Command; and Vice Adm. Johnny Wolfe, director for strategic systems programs for the Navy http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
2 p.m. 138 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs Subcommittee hearing: “The proposed budget estimates for fiscal year 2026 for the State Department,” with testimony from Secretary of State Marco Rubio http://appropriations.senate.gov
WEDNESDAY | MAY 21
2:30 p.m. 124 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Energy and Water Development Subcommittee hearing: “A Review of the President’s FY2026 Budget Request for the Department of Energy,” with testimony from Energy Secretary Chris Wright http://appropriations.senate.gov
2:30 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Cybersecurity Subcommittee hearing: “Defense of the Department of Defense Information Network,” with testimony from Army Lt. Gen. Paul Stanton, director, Defense Information Systems Agency and commander, Department of Defense Information Network’s Joint Force Headquarters http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
2:30 p.m. 232-A Russell — Senate Armed Services Seapower Subcommittee hearing: “Navy unmanned systems,” with testimony from Bryan Clark, senior fellow and director, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology; and retired Navy Rear Adm. Robert Girrier, former deputy commander, Pacific Fleet and former director of operations for the U.S. Pacific Command http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
