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‘Maybe it’s not possible.’ Trump vacillates between hope and pessimism over prospects for peace in Ukraine

‘THERE’S TREMENDOUS HATRED’: In an interview with NBC’s Kristen Welker, President Donald Trump admitted he has “no idea” if Russian President Vladimir Putin will eventually agree to a peace deal with Ukraine, but took credit for the fact that Russian ground forces have made only meager advances in recent months. 

“I can tell you this, his ambition was stopped to a large extent when he saw that it was me who was now leading the charge,” Trump said. “Russia doesn’t want the strip that they have now. Russia wants all of Ukraine. And if it weren’t me, they would keep going,” he said, glossing over the reality that Putin has not given up his maximalist goals and continues to mount largely ineffective ground offensives at enormous cost in men and materials.

“Did you in any way misread Vladimir Putin?” Welker asked. “I’ll tell you about in a month from now, or two weeks from now,” Trump replied. “I have no idea.”

Trump said he’s considered pulling the plug on his effort to bring the two sides together but has not given up hope. “Maybe it’s not possible to do,” he told Welker. “We’re talking tremendous hatred between these two men and between, you know, some of the soldiers, frankly. Between the generals. They’ve been fighting hard for three years,” before quickly adding, “I think we have a very good chance of doing it.”

“Well, there will be a time when I will say, ‘Okay, keep going. Keep being stupid and keep fighting,’” Trump said. “Sometimes I get close to it, and then positive things happen.” Asked if he would sign a bill that would increase sanctions on Russia sponsored by his ally Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Trump said, “It depends on whether or not Russia is behaving toward coming to a peace. We want Russia and Ukraine to agree to a deal.”

US POISED TO PULL BACK FROM MEDIATING RUSSIA-UKRAINE NEGOTIATIONS

PUTIN: RUSSIA HAS THE ‘STRENGTH AND MEANS’ TO END WAR: Meanwhile, Putin continues to attack Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Kyiv, with unrelenting barrages of missiles and drones. 

“More than 165 Shahed drones, Iranian drones, have been deployed again against completely civilian targets,” said Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova, on CBS’s Face The Nation, describing a weekend attack on Kyiv. “So, unfortunately, this is a horrible reality during the past 1,166 days.”

In a documentary that aired on Russian state TV Sunday, Putin tells Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin that Russia has the “strength and the means” to bring the war in Ukraine to its “logical conclusion with the result that Russia needs” and again raises the specter of the use of nuclear weapons. “There has been no need to use those weapons” Putin said in response to a question about Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory. “I hope they will not be required.”

“Putin’s statements indicate that Russia continues to assess that it can achieve its original objectives of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which include demilitarizing Ukraine, installing a pro-Russian government in Ukraine, forcing Ukraine to abandon its aspirations to join NATO and other security blocs, and forcing Ukraine to make massive territorial concessions to Russia, including parts of Ukraine that Russia does not currently occupy,” the Washington-based Institute for the Study of war said in its latest assessment.

But the latest intelligence update from the British Defense Ministry calls Russia’s massive battlefield losses unsustainable over the long term. “In the first four months of 2025, Russia likely sustained 160,000 casualties,” which it says puts Russia on track to make 2025 the costliest year of the war, which has resulted so far in 950,000 Russian troops killed or wounded. “So far in 2025, Russia has not been able to translate continued heavy losses into significant advances in Ukraine,” the U.K. assessment concludes.

Putin’s not-so-secret weapon remains his total disregard for the number of casualties he inflicts on civilians or those suffered by his troops.

ZELENSKY: PUTIN’S 3-DAY CEASEFIRE ‘TOP-LEVEL CYNICISM’: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says he’s ready to institute a 30-day total ceasefire anytime, but has rejected Putin’s calls for a brief pause in the fighting while Moscow stages a Victory Day parade in the Russian capital.

“The Russians are calling for a ceasefire on May 9 while striking Ukraine every single day. This is top-level cynicism: just this week alone, Russia has used over 1,180 attack drones, 1,360 guided aerial bombs, and 10 missiles of various types against Ukraine,” Zelensky said over the weekend. “And at the same time, we are ready to move toward a ceasefire as soon as possible – even starting today – if Russia is ready to take reciprocal steps – to establish complete silence, a lasting ceasefire of at least 30 days.”

In other comments, Zelensky said Ukraine could not “guarantee the safety of world leaders in Moscow on May 9,” saying during a visit to Prague, that he has little faith in Putin’s self-declared ceasefire. 

“We understand who we are dealing with, we do not believe them,” said Zelensky.

UKRAINE, RUSSIA ISSUE THREATS AS THREE-DAY CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL CRUMBLES

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre.

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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth meets with Peru’s Defense Minister Walter Astudillo and Foreign Minister Elmer Schialer at the Pentagon at 9 a.m.

TRUMP’S TRILLION DOLLAR DEFENSE BUDGET: Hegseth and his boss, President Trump, have been touting the first trillion dollar defense budget, but when the 2026 so-called “Skinny Budget” arrived on Capital Hill Friday, it landed with a bit of a thud.

While the three-and-a-half-page synopsis called for a 13% increase in defense spending, which would take the Pentagon’s top line close to $1 trillion, the plan appears to rely on the extra $150 billion GOP lawmakers are trying to add to this year’s budget as part of Trump’s “one big beautiful bill” that would be passed through a process called reconciliation. 

That makes the actual budget request about  $892.6 billion, which is “a cut in real terms,” according to Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), chairman of the Armed Services Committee.

In a statement, Wicker blasted the proposal as an attempt to “paper over” the administration’s “intent to shred to the bone our military capabilities.”

“President Trump successfully campaigned on a ‘Peace Through Strength’ agenda, but his advisers at the Office of Management and Budget were apparently not listening,” Wicker said. “OMB has requested a fifth year straight of Biden administration funding, leaving military spending flat.”

“I have said for months that reconciliation defense spending does not replace the need for real growth in the military’s base budget.”

In a similar statement Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) chair of the Appropriations Committee, called the Trump plan a “proposed freeze in our defense funding.” While former Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) accused Trump of “doubling down on the Biden Administration’s material neglect for the glaring national security threats.”

“Make no mistake: a one-time influx reconciliation spending is not a substitute for full-year appropriations,” McConnell said in his statement. “It’s a supplement. OMB accounting gimmicks may well convince Administration officials and spokesmen that they’re doing enough to counter the growing, coordinated challenges we face from China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and radical terrorists. But they won’t fool Congress.”

DEFENSE HAWKS TAKE AIM AT MILITARY FUNDING IN TRUMP’S BUDGET

TRUMP: ‘NOT FOR MY BIRTHDAY’: In his NBC interview, which was taped last week, Trump expounded on the “a big, beautiful parade” planned for Saturday, June 14, but it said he thought it was for “Flag Day,” not his 79th birthday.

“Well, my birthday happens to be on Flag Day,” he told Kristen Welker, “I view it for Flag Day, not necessarily my birthday. Somebody put it together. The Army said it has added a military parade to its planned celebration of the service’s 250th anniversary.”

In any event, Trump said, “We’re going to celebrate our military. We have the greatest military in the world.” When asked about the cost, which could be in the tens of millions of dollars for troops, armored vehicles, and helicopters, Trump dismissed it as “Peanuts compared to the value of doing it.”

“We have the greatest missiles in the world. We have the greatest submarines in the world. We have the greatest army tanks in the world. We have the greatest weapons in the world. And we’re going to celebrate it,” he said.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

THE RUNDOWN:

Washington Examiner: Ukraine, Russia issue threats as three-day ceasefire proposal crumbles

Washington Examiner: US poised to pull back from mediating Russia-Ukraine negotiations

Washington Examiner: Hegseth directs start of developing National Defense Strategy

Washington Examiner: Hegseth to visit Israel ahead of Trump’s first foreign trip to Middle East: Report

Washington Examiner: Stephen Miller could be next national security adviser, Trump says

Washington Examiner: Defense hawks take aim at military funding in Trump’s budget

Washington Examiner: Mexico’s Sheinbaum reveals what she told Trump after rejecting offer of US troops

AP: Trump blasts Mexico’s Sheinbaum for rejecting offer to send US troops into Mexico to fight cartels

Washington Examiner: TikTok’s $600 million European fine is a reminder US national security concerns are still unresolved

Washington Examiner: Trump open to extending TikTok sale deadline for a third time

Washington Examiner: Humanitarian ship headed for Gaza purportedly attacked by drones

Washington Examiner: Top commanders warn US unprepared for war with China as Trump weighs troop reductions in the Indo-Pacific

Washington Examiner: A missile from Yemen halts flights in Israel

Washington Examiner: Israel readying massive response to Houthis and Iran after airport missile attack

Washington Examiner: Two DC flight landings aborted over nearby military helicopter despite new restrictions

Washington Examiner: Trump likes Cardinal Dolan for pope, but an American pontiff seems a non-starter

Washington Examiner: Pope contender Cardinal Pietro Parolin has an uncomfortable China problem

Washington Examiner: King Charles III to open Canadian parliament to underscore ‘sovereignty’ of country

Washington Examiner: Senate GOP saddled with Signalgate as Waltz plucked to fill last Cabinet post

Washington Examiner: Mike Waltz will have ‘brutal’ confirmation hearing, Duckworth says

Washington Examiner: Army plans parade to celebrate 250th anniversary on Trump’s birthday

Washington Examiner: Texas gets a new city: Everything to know about Starbase, Texas

Washington Examiner: Musk gets his Texas wish. SpaceX launch site is approved as the new city of Starbase

Washington Examiner: A Democratic congressman tried to reduce Pete Hegseth’s salary to $1

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Is Taiwan worth the fight?

AP: Israel plans to capture all of Gaza under new plan, officials say

New York Times: More American Air Defense Is on the Way to Help Ukraine

AP: Putin says he hopes there will be no need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine

Wall Street Journal: Everyone Wants a Piece of Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’ Defense Plan

Military.com: Military Takes Over Another Stretch of Public Border Land in Effort to Catch and Charge Migrants

Air & Space Forces Magazine: New CCA Unit at Beale Won’t Be ‘Schoolhouse’ to Teach Pilots to Fly with Drones

Air & Space Forces Magazine: RAF Unveils Its Own Plan for New Drones to Fly Alongside Fighters

The War Zone: Stop Buying MQ-1C Gray Eagle Drones, Army’s Top Leadership Decrees

Defense News: Pentagon Seeks Drone-Killing Technology That’s Safe for Civilians

Air & Space Forces Magazine: US Air Force Taps Boneyard Jets to Keep Ukraine’s F-16s Flying

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Trump Proposes $1 Trillion Defense Budget for 2026

DefenseScoop: Army Stands Up New Career Field for Enlisted Soldiers Focused on Space Operations

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Tells Vendors: We Want AI, but It Needs to Be Specific

THE CALENDAR: 

MONDAY | MAY 5

9 a.m. — Atlantic Council Eurasia Center virtual discussion: “Russia war in Ukraine: Where are negotiations today?” with Marie Mendras, research fellow, National Center for Scientific Research; James Nixey, director, Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Program; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, Eurasia Center senior director https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/russias-war-in-ukraine

9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing to consider the nominations of Anthony Tata to be undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness; and Katherine Sutton to be assistant secretary of defense for cyber policy https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

11 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Cato Institute forum: “A Fork in the Road: The Stark Choices on U.S.-Iran Policy,” with Danny Citrinowicz, research fellow at Tel Aviv University Institute for National Security Studies; Gregory Brew, senior analyst on Iran and energy, Eurasia Group; Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow, Center for International Policy; and Jon Hoffman, Cato research fellow https://www.cato.org/events/fork-road-stark-choices-us-iran-policy

12 p.m. — Institute for Policy Studies virtual discussion: “Trump Mineral Dreams: Focus on Ukraine and Greenland,” with Klaus Dodds, professor of geopolitics at Royal Holloway, University of London; and Roman Opimakh, former director, Ukraine Geological Survey https://ips-dc.org/event/trumps-mineral-dreams

3 p.m. — Air and Space Forces Association virtual discussion: “Space superiority and building a warrior culture,” with Chief Master Sgt. of the Space Force John Bentivegna, https://www.afa.org/events/warfighters-in-action

TUESDAY | MAY 6 

9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: the nominations of Anthony Tata to be undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness; and Katherine Sutton to be assistant secretary of defense for cyber policy. http://www.armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Transportation and Maritime Security Subcommittee hearing: “Beijing Air, Space, and Maritime Surveillance from Cuba: A Growing Threat to the Homeland” http://homeland.house.gov

10 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “What to Expect from Germany Next Government,” with Sophia Besch, senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Europe Program; Shahin Vallee, senior research fellow, German Council on Foreign Relation Center for Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, and Technology; Jorn Fleck, senior director, Atlantic Council Europe Center; and Rachel Rizzo, nonresident senior fellow, Atlantic Council Europe Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

12 p.m. — Air and Space Forces Association Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: “Why We Need Assured Access to Space,” with Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, program executive officer for assured access to space, Space Force; and Charles Galbreath, senior resident fellow for spacepower studies, Mitchell Institute Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence https://afa-org.zoom.us/webinar/register

12:30 p.m. 1400 L St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “Europe Evolving Security Landscape,” with Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/belgiums-defense-minister

2 p.m. H-140, U.S. Capitol — House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “Oversight Hearing — The U.S. Air Force and Space Force,” with testimony from Gen. David Allvin, chief of staff of the Air Force; Gary Ashworth acting secretary of the Air Force; and Gen. B. Chance Saltzman, chief of space operations for the Space Force http://appropriations.house.gov

3 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee hearing: “Military Readiness for FY2026,” with testimony from Gen. James Mingus, Army vice chief of staff; Adm. James Kilby, vice chief of naval operations; Gen. Christopher Mahoney, assistant commandant of the Marine Corps; Lt. Gen. Adrian Spain, deputy Air Force chief of staff for operations; and Gen. Michael Guetlein, Space Force vice chief of space operations http://www.armedservices.house.gov

3:30 p.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation Subcommittee hearing: “Science, Technology, and Innovation Posture,” with testimony from James Mazol, performing the duties of the undersecretary of defense for research and engineering and Chief Technology Officer; Doug Beck, director, Defense Innovation Unit: and George Rumford, director, Test Resource Management Center https://armedservices.house.gov

WEDNESDAY | MAY 7

10 a.m. H-140, U.S. Capitol — House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “Oversight Hearing — The U.S. Army,” with testimony from Daniel Driscoll, secretary of the Army; and Gen. Randy George, chief of staff of the Army http://appropriations.house.gov

11 a.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion of a new report, “A Strategy to Revitalize the Defense Industrial Base for the 21st Century,” with Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-MO) https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/revitalizing-the-defense-industrial-base

2:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “What Happening in Minsk?” with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Belarus opposition leader https://www.hudson.org/events/whats-happening-minsk

3 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing: “Nuclear Forces and Atomic Energy Defense Activities Programmatic Updates,” with testimony from Air Force Lt. Gen. Andrew Gebara, deputy chief of staff, strategic deterrence and nuclear integration; Vice Adm. Johnny Wolfe, director, Strategic Systems Programs; Teresa Robbins, acting administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration; Brandi Vann, performing the duties of the assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical, and biological defense programs; and Andrea Yaffe, acting principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for space policy http://www.armedservices.house.gov

3:30 p.m. 2212 Rayburn House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee hearing: “Update on Air Force Projection Forces Aviation Programs and Capabilities,” with testimony from Lt. Gen. David Tabor, deputy Air Force chief of staff for plans and programs; and Darlene Costello, principal deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology and logistics http://www.armedservices.house.gov

3:30 p.m. 300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Politico discussion: “Securing Europe: NATO Next Steps,” with Benedikt Franke, vice-chairman and CEO of the Munich Security Conference https://politico-securingnato

THURSDAY | MAY 8

9 a.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation Subcommittee hearing: “Information Technology and Artificial Intelligence Posture of the Department of Defense,” with testimony from Douglas Matty, DOD chief digital and artificial intelligence officer; and Katie Arrington, performing the duties of DOD chief information officer y http://www.armedservices.house.gov

9 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: “Space superiority, space fires, Golden Dome, and the continued delivery of unparalleled spacepower advantage,” with Lt. Gen. Thomas James, deputy commander, U.S. Space Command; and Charles Galbreath, senior resident fellow for spacepower studies, Mitchell Institute Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/events/ltg-thomas-l-james/

9 a.m. 2008 Rayburn — House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee hearing: “Oversight Hearing – The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency,” with testimony from Bridget Bean, acting director, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency http://appropriations.house.gov

9 a.m. 138 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing: “A Review of the President FY2026 Budget Request for the Federal Bureau of Investigation,” with testimony from FBI Director Kash Patel http://appropriations.senate.gov

9 a.m. Cannon Caucus Room 390 — United Against Nuclear Iran displays an Iranian Shahed-136 drone on Capitol Hill to call attention to Iran malign drone proliferation, with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA); Sen. James Lankford (R-OK); Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY) [email protected]

9:30 a.m. 1400 L St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “National Security and the Future of Space Commerce,” with retired Gen. John Raymond, former chief of space operations at U.S. Space Force https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/general-john-raymond

11 a.m. 1750 Independence Dr. — Friends of the National World War II Memorial V-E Day 80th Anniversary Commemoration, to “pay tribute to the more than 400,000 Americans who gave their lives and the more than 60 million souls lost worldwide in the deadliest conflict in human history.” https://www.wwiimemorialfriends.org/ceremony-registration

12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” webinar: “U.S. Army: Powering the Mission,” with Brandon Cockrell, deputy assistant Army secretary for energy and sustainability https://www.ausa.org/events/noon-report/us-army-powering-the-mission

12:30 p.m. 1301 Connecticut Ave. NW — Institute for Policy Studies book discussion: Fire and Rain: Nixon, Kissinger, and the Wars in Southeast Asia, with author Carolyn Woods Eisenberg https://ips-dc.org/event/fire-and-rain

3 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: “Logistics While Under Attack: Key to a CCA (Concepts and Capability Assessments) Force Design,” with Brig. Gen. Joseph Kunkel, director of force design, integration, and wargaming for the Deputy Chief of Staff for Air Force Futures; Mark Gunzinger, director of future concepts and capability assessments, Mitchell Institute; and retired Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean, Mitchell Institute https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/events/research-study-release-cca2025/

FRIDAY | MAY 9

12 p.m. 112 Elden St., Suite P, Herndon, Virginia — Clare Boothe Luce Center for Conservative Women discussion: “Escaping North Korea: From Brainwashing to Freedom,” with Seohyun Lee, North Korean defector and human rights advocate https://tinyurl.com/48c7pcdy



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