CNN polling analyst Harry Enten says new polling data shows that Democrats are likely to fail to regain control of the U.S. Senate if trends don’t reverse.
Enten showed Monday that although Democrats are still slightly favored in the generic congressional ballot, it is not enough to retake the Senate from Republican control.
‘You’d make the argument Democrats should be way ahead, and they’re just only sort of slightly ahead.’
While polling shows Democrats with a five-point net favorability rating for the 2026 election, that is well below their net rating in the 2018 midterms, which was eight points, and 2006 midterms, which was 11 points. Those were the last two midterms with a Republican president for comparison.
“Democrats are, just simply put, running behind their previous benchmark, and they need to be running well ahead of them if they want to take back the United States Senate, given that map,” Enten said.
He added that although President Donald Trump’s favorability rating has taken a beating recently, Democrats appear to be unable to take advantage of it enough to take both chambers of Congress.
“Democrats are ahead, but they’re only ahead by five with a president whose net approval rating is bordering on minus 20 to minus 30, depending on what polls you look at,” Enten said. “You’d make the argument Democrats should be way ahead, and they’re just only sort of slightly ahead.”
CNN anchor John Berman pointed out that they may take the U.S. House of Representatives despite the low rating because the gap is so close.
“I think five points is enough to take back the House, but in the Senate, five points is almost certainly not enough if you apply it to the Senate map,” Enten responded.
“Why do I say that? Because let’s just take a look. GOP would win the Senate with this map. Let’s say Republicans only hold on to the states that Trump won by greater than 10 points. That would, in fact, give them the Senate, 51 to 49,” he explained.
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Under those conditions, Democrats would take seats in North Carolina and Maine, but Republicans would hold on to seats in Ohio, Texas, and Alaska, according to his analysis.
NBC News analyst Steve Kornacki had nearly the same conclusion for Democrats about their chances to retake control of Congress.
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