ALTOONA, Pa. — A rumor flew across social media last week that a state house seat in Blair County, Pennsylvania, was within grasp of the Democrats, potentially flipping the 79th legislative seat in a late winter special election.
Stephen Caruso, a Harrisburg-based Spotlight PA reporter, posted on X last week: “Republicans and Democrats I talk to are increasingly keeping an eye on next Tuesday’s special election in Altoona. One Pennsylvania Democratic source told me they are ‘cautiously optimistic’ about the race in a central PA district Trump won by 30+ points.”
But talking to people over the weekend told a different story, as interviews are anecdotal evidence that can miss trends or sentiments.
Some truths: It is no secret that Democrats are enthusiastic. And it is also no secret that Republicans are not, as both head into this year’s midterm elections.
Republicans also failed to entice people to run for state legislative seats in five state house seats that President Donald Trump won by over 40 percentage points: HD-174 (47.8%), HD-2 (46.3%), HD-133 (45.7%), HD-146 (44.5%), and HD-25 (43.9%).
Altoona is the home of the Altoona Curve, both a minor league baseball Double AA affiliate of the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the team’s namesake, the 2,375-foot-long hairpin turn that revolutionized American rail travel.
It is also home to Altoona Pizza, Sheetz, and Republicans.
Athan Koutsiouroumbas, a longtime Pennsylvania-based conservative strategist, said that Republicans would have a turnout problem going into Tuesday’s special election.
Democrats gave the Republicans a fairly good thumping here in Pennsylvania, not only in the state Supreme Court races, but also in downballot races in Bucks, Luzerne, and Erie counties, where Republicans had been doing well. Koutsiouroumbas wasn’t wrong.
If you factor in the built-in assumption that the Trump margin declines by 3-to-4 percentage points in midterm elections, or when Trump is not on the ballot, it is possible that the Republican candidate Andrea Verobish could have faced a squeaker against her opponent, Caleb McCoy (D-PA), on Tuesday night.
However, it was not a squeaker. Was it a plus-30 win for her? Of course not; it wasn’t even close. With all 44 district precincts counted, Verobish defeated McCoy by 57% to 42%.
Nonetheless, Chris Rieger, an Altoona native and a current borough councilman in suburban Pittsburgh, posted on X that a 15-point spread between a Republican and a Democrat was insanely good for Democrats and reflected a national mood favoring them. Only 23% of registered voters turned out for that race.
Again, the mood for Democrats is very good. But calling the loss an insanely good one is a bit over-the-top.
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Republicans held another special election on Tuesday evening, with Catherine Wallin (R-PA) defeating challenger Todd Crawley (D-PA) to win the 193rd legislative district in Adams and Cumberland counties. In a district where Republicans hold a 60-24 edge, Wallin earned 59.5% of the vote, with 22% turnout.
The lesson here, at least one that can be gleaned from a special election that barely gets 23% of registered voters, is to turn out to vote. Namely, though Democrats are fired up enough to turn out, Republicans still had a more than respectable showing. There was no upset. They didn’t lose. And they didn’t “hang on to the seat,” as a headline in The Hill suggested. In fact, they won it decisively.
