EXCLUSIVE — House Republicans say the fight for the majority in 2026 will be less a red wave or blue wave than a series of brutal street fights.
This week, at a policy retreat in Doral, Florida, the House GOP leaders made the case for why they will defy decades of political gravity and hold their majority in November — brushing aside the historical trend that punishes the party in power during midterms.
In a sit-down interview with the Washington Examiner, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson (R-NC) insisted that Republicans were in better shape than most political prognosticators assumed.
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“People who are saying this election is over because of history are wrong,” Hudson said, sitting outside the Donald J. Trump Ballroom at the resort. “We haven’t won yet, but we haven’t lost yet, either.”
Leadership has been plugging a new phrase for their midterm election messaging: 2026 is a contest between “common sense and crazy.”
“Our party is very focused on everyday working Americans. Their party seems to be focused on illegal immigrants and criminals,” Hudson said.
The NRCC chairman said he presented to his colleagues that the biggest advantage Republicans have is data. In previous elections, a new president swept in members of Congress who “probably shouldn’t have won” due to redistricting or a down-ballot effect from the momentum at the top of the ticket.
“This election, I describe it as a knife fight in a dark alley. There’s gonna be less than 30 seats each, 30 knife fights in 30 different dark alleys,” Hudson said. “All those seats could be decided by about 1,000 votes or less. That’s the majority. That’s the whole ball game.”
In 2018, Republicans were defending 42 seats won by Hillary Clinton; in 2026, Republicans are defending 13 GOP incumbents in Kamala Harris-won districts.
Money and messaging take center stage
Throughout the course of the retreat, GOP leadership was insistent that they would overcome the odds and keep the majority.
“This House Republican majority has defied expectations and historical trends and conventional thought virtually every single day that we’ve been governing,” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said at the retreat’s opening press conference.
Money and numbers are on the GOP’s side to do just what Johnson hopes, according to Hudson. Yet, the GOP’s biggest problem may be articulating the results they are delivering for the American people and disrupting the Democrats’ messaging on Trump.
“It’s hard for us to get our message out,” Hudson admitted.
Part of the problem is branding. Heading into the 2026 elections, Republicans are coming off a significant legislative win: passing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a sweeping megabill that passed along party lines in a process known as budget reconciliation.
Democrats have held a distinct advantage on messaging when it comes to the reconciliation bill, which included cutting taxes across the board, but also imposed new work requirements on Medicaid. Democrats have portrayed those new work requirements as Republicans cutting healthcare for people in poverty.
Republicans are trying to take back the narrative by rechristening the legislation as the “Working Families Tax Cut.”
In a sit-down interview with House Republican Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain (R-MI) told the Washington Examiner that they need to help voters “connect the dots” about the benefits of the bill.
“People are starting to file their tax returns, and the no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, remember, was retroactive, so now people are getting your tax returns back, and it’s like, ‘Oh my god, where did this extra 10 grand come from?’” said McClain, who is in charge of House GOP messaging. “So, now they’re feeling the policies of which we put in place.”
Hudson echoed McClain, noting that he’s advocated for lawmakers to message on specific policies that cater to their individual district.
“I can’t wait to go into these Democratic districts and let their seniors know that they voted against no tax on Social Security, like, that’s a fact they’re gonna have to live with,” Hudson said. “So, you know, it’s all there for us. We just have to connect the dots.”
To thread the needle, Hudson said it will come down heavily to money, and Republicans are “well ahead” in terms of fundraising and candidate recruitment.
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Johnson himself raised $20 million, the highest amount raised by a speaker for a single roundtable fundraiser, just hours before the House GOP policy retreat kicked off on Monday.
“It takes all of us focused and doing it in our districts,” Hudson said. “The President’s got the biggest megaphone. Each of us has a little megaphone, and so we all need to be doing it when it comes to the races. … We invest heavily in ground game, so we can connect or talk directly to voters. And then we also use that as our turnout mechanism. So we’re spending a lot of time, a lot of resources, on communicating with the voters.”
