Riverside County’s Republican sheriff gained attention over the fall for leading the crowded gubernatorial competition to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), but his momentum is likely to be short-lived.
An Emerson College survey released earlier this month put Chad Bianco’s campaign at the top of the race, dominated by Democrats. The poll indicated the sheriff’s campaign had gained significant traction after he previously trailed former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter over the summer by 6 percentage points when she led the field of contenders.
In interviews with the Washington Examiner, political strategists credited Bianco’s rise partly to the Republican base’s dissatisfaction with Steve Hilton, viewed as the other main GOP candidate in the race. However, the sheriff’s days at the top are limited, experts said, because his share of the vote is likely to dwindle in the coming months as the opposition’s field shrinks, allowing a single Democratic candidate to consolidate support.
“You have a smaller pool of Republicans, so anybody that you poll who is Republican, if they’re not undecided, has their guy, right? And it’s one of these two,” California strategist Elizabeth Ashford said, adding she doesn’t believe the data shows Bianco is “suddenly enjoying mass support,” as the Emerson polling showed 45% of voters remain undecided.
In addition to at least eight Democrats jockeying for positions, Attorney General Rob Bonta is also rumored to be eyeing a gubernatorial campaign, with a possible entrance promising to add another twist to the race.
Experts agreed Bianco holds a certain appeal to Republicans because he poses a clear contrast to Hilton, a British-born candidate viewed with suspicion by some in the base. Jon Slavet has also recently announced a bid on the GOP side, although it remains to be seen if he will garner significant support.
“Steve is a more complicated character,” Ashford said, pointing to Hilton’s record as political senior adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron. “British conservatives are very, very moderate. I mean, they would be considered Democrats here. So I think that for, you know, real MAGA types, Bianco is probably a more natural place to go.”
Los Angeles-based strategist Matt Clink agreed, saying that voters unfamiliar with the candidate may question “why a British guy running for California governor.”
Still, although Bianco has managed to edge out Hilton as the leading GOP contender, it’s questionable whether his campaign’s momentum is sustainable.
While Bianco holds strong support from the conservative base, his views are unlikely to gain traction in a majority-blue state where pulling the centrist and independent vote is viewed as necessary for cementing a Republican win, according to Clink.
“The problem with Chad Bianco is that he has his floor and his ceiling are roughly at about the same level, meaning that he has a hardcore group of supporters, probably largely from Riverside County or very, very ideologically conservative folks that will vote for him,” he said of Biacno who is known for his support for President Donald Trump and toughening immigration policies in the pro-sanctuary state.
“But again, those votes are along the coast in California. They’re not in the middle, and I think that that’s where ultimately he will have to sell himself, because any candidate, to be successful, they have to sell themselves to independents and Republicans and get some Democratic crossover. And I don’t know if Chad Bianco has the ability to do that,” he added.
Just because Bianco, or Hilton for that matter, isn’t likely to seal a final victory in the 2026 election doesn’t mean the electorate isn’t hungry for a Republican governor.
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However, Clink warned that only a more centrist or resoundingly charismatic personality, in the mold of Ronald Reagan or Arnold Schwarzenegger, is likely to be the type of candidate who can cross ideological lines and gain traction in the Golden State.
“Look, there is a lot of dissatisfaction even among California Democrats about the state. The problem is, is that Republican candidates have been so extreme that they automatically turn off Democrats and most independents,” he said.
