Fresh off wins in the 2025 elections, Democrats are shifting their sights toward their next target: the special election to fill the seat of former Rep. Mark Green (R-TN), after a recent polling index shows the normally solid red district slightly more within reach.
Though President Donald Trump won the Tennessee 7th District by 22 percentage points, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted the race from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.” The reasoning centered on Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn’s affordability agenda and charisma, as well as Democrats’ ability to outperform Republicans in non-presidential cycles.
Behn is facing Republican Matt Van Epps in the general election on Dec. 2, a date chosen by Gov. Bill Lee (R-TN) with the hope that it would be overshadowed by the holiday season of Thanksgiving. But a lot is riding on this election: if Republicans can hold on to the seat, it helps boost Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) razor-thin margin.
Van Epps sailed to victory largely thanks to an endorsement from Trump and his capitalization on his nine active duty tours. But the nonpartisan analyst noted that that may not be enough to rally support from the GOP’s voting base, which is already lackluster to vote for ballots where Trump’s name is not at the top.
Behn, meanwhile, was able to win thanks to a solid grassroots campaign. She ran an unapologetic populist and progressive platform, and her campaign pointed to early voting totals in her victory announcement that showed Republicans at 50.52% and Democrats at 49.28%, “underscoring the competitiveness of a race many assumed would be unwinnable for Democrats.”
Affordability was the key issue in the 2025 elections. Although the Democratic Gov.-elects, Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger, ran centrist campaigns focused on lowering costs and making their states more affordable, New York Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani also attracted thousands of voters thanks to his affordability platform.
With Democrats dominating New Jersey, New York, and Virginia, the party further down south is hoping they can make a splash in an otherwise red stronghold by connecting on similar issues.
“You’ve got someone in Aftyn Behn who knows ― as a social worker, as a community organizer, as a rep ― someone who understands the struggle of average everyday Tennesseans; people who want hope, people who need a champion,” Democratic National Committee chairman Ken Martin told a crowd of canvassers for Behn last week, per the Tennessean.
To boost turnout, Behn has enlisted the help of prominent Democrats, including Martin and Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX). Martin energized over 80 canvassers last week, saying that “anyone who’s within 16 points right now is within striking distance.
“And Aftyn is not only within striking distance, she’s on the verge of making this happen with all your help,” Martin told the canvassers.
The Cook Political Report said in its analysis that public polling still shows an edge for Van Epps, with an Oct. 16-19 survey finding the Republican leading Behn by single digits, 52% to 44%.
“We saw what happened last week in America: All across the United States, Democratic energy is up. People are tired of what’s going on right now in Washington,” Rachel Campbell, chairwoman of the Tennessee Democratic Party, told NOTUS. “Aftyn Behn gives us an opportunity to send a fresh face, a fresh voice, and a fighter to Congress, and that’s what we’re excited about and what we’re looking forward to.”
Behn told the outlet she thinks her candidacy offers a lead-by-example moment for other House candidates running for traditionally conservative seats.
“If we are able to get close or flip it, I think it is a testament to how the Democratic playbook will be rewritten in the South, which is one of running on affordability issues and not responding to the cultural issues that the right is weaponizing,” Behn said.
Republicans currently have a 2-1 record in House special elections this year, gaining two new GOP lawmakers in the House thanks to Reps. Jimmy Patronis (R-FL) and Randy Fine (R-FL) are holding on to red seats. Democrats won the Arizona special election, with Rep. Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ) finally being sworn in on Wednesday after a weekslong delay during the government shutdown.
Democrats will fill the seat left vacant by the late Rep. Sylvester Turner in Texas, with two Democrats advancing to a runoff election that could take place as late as January 31, according to Houston Public Media.
With a projected Republican win in Tennessee and a projected Democratic win in Texas, the House will return to its 220-215 numbers, meaning Johnson can afford to lose only two votes to still pass legislation along party lines.
However, a Democratic victory in Tennessee would narrow that to a one-seat majority, which would be a significant challenge for the speaker, who already faces a government funding deadline of Jan.31.
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Based on partisanship in the 7th District, it’s likely that the race will remain in Republican hands. However, Nashville Democrats are energized after losing their congressional representation due to redistricting in 2022. The timing of the race, coming two days after the Thanksgiving weekend, is also a bonus for Democrats, as many Republican voters may not be aware that the race is even taking place.
Republicans are working hard financially to bolster Van Epps in the race, with the National Republican Congressional Committee spending $164,000 on the airwaves to boost GOP turnout. Separately, Republicans have outspent Democrats on the airwaves, $160,000 to $64,000, in the race.
The Washington Examiner reached out to Behn and Van Epps for comment.
